Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is expected to reach an all-time high of 179.5 million tons

Hedgepoint's new projection indicates that Brazil will harvest 179.5 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 harvest, a figure that exceeds the previous estimate (178 million) and reinforces the scenario of recovery and expansion of national production. The combination of favorable weather, recovery in key states and a positive adjustment in area and productivity supports the prospect of a new record. 

In this analysis, we'll cover:

• The impact of the weather on crop development;
• Productive recovery in RS and estimates for MT and PR;
• Updates on the progress of the harvest in the country;
• Climate trends and next steps for the harvest.

Positive weather boosts production potential

The start of the season was marked by a largely favorable climate in most producing regions. According to the analysis, December presented particularly positive conditions, reflected in high levels of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This NDVI performance reinforces the fact that the crops are still in a very  situationhealthy, with good vegetative development and strong yield prospects.

Rio Grande do Sul: the key to the super harvest

The highlight of this season is Rio Grande do Sul, the country's third largest producer. After three years marked by severe frustrations due to unfavorable weather conditions, the state is finally finding more favorable conditions for crop development. The report points out that the recovery in Rio Grande do Sul will be decisive in setting a national record, adding significant volumes to the total harvest. 

Mato Grosso and Paraná reinforce the positive trend

The country's two largest producers (Mato Grosso and Paraná) also show high NDVI levels, indicating robust crop development over the last few months. States such as Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and Bahia follow the same trend, helping to consolidate the picture of strong national production potential. 

Harvesting has begun, but the pace may fluctuate 

By January 16, approximately 3% of the Brazilian area had already been harvested, in line with a planting season that started early in some states, such as Mato Grosso and Paraná. However, delays recorded during part of September and October could result in a slower pace throughout February and March. Even so, Hedgepoint says that significant yield losses are not expected, provided the weather continues to be mild. 


Weather forecasts: next steps for the harvest 

The next few weeks will continue to be decisive: 

• The Center-North is expected to face higher volumes of rain at the end of January, which could slow down the advance of the machines. 
• The Center-South tends to have little humidity in the short term, favoring the harvest. 
• The Northeast requires attention: part of the crops planted later still depend on regular water. 
• The South, especially Rio Grande do Sul, is expected to receive above-average rainfall in February, a beneficial factor for the consolidation of Rio Grande do Sul's recovery. 

In the Northeast, on the other hand, low humidity could cause concern for areas in intermediate development, requiring continuous monitoring. 

Record harvest in sight: what to expect?

Hedgepoint's baseline scenario points out that, if the weather forecasts are confirmed, Brazil should harvest a new record crop, close to 180 million tons. 

Among the reasons behind this optimism: 

• Consistent weather for much of the cycle. 
• Significant recovery in Rio Grande do Sul. 
• Good vegetative performance in the main states of the Midwest and Southeast. 
• A robust planted area, accompanied by advanced technologies and management. 

The analysis reinforces that the weather continues to be a critical factor in the final weeks, influencing both the outcome of the crop and the efficiency of the harvest. 

The 2025/26 soybean harvest is shaping up to be one of the most solid in Brazilian history. The strength of Rio Grande do Sul, added to the good performance of Mato Grosso, Paraná and other states in the agricultural belt, puts the country in a privileged position to supply the global market at a strategic moment. 

Hedgepoint continues to monitor the weather, the progress of the harvest and the impact of these factors on final production, offering essential market intelligence analysis for producers, traders and participants in the oilseed chain. 

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