The 2025 coffe crop in Brazil reveals a scenario of cotrasts, with arabica coffee production falling and conilon production rising. As one of the largest producers and exporters of the bean, Brazil's performance directly influences supply and prices in the global coffee market, making it an important factor for all players in this chain.
In this article, we've prepared complete analysis of the perfomance of the 2025 coffee crop an projections for the next cycle.
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As one of the world's largest coffee producers and exporters, Brazil's performance directly influences the global supply and demand balance.
This market relevance is clearly evident. In 2024, Brazil set a record for the volume of coffee exported. While current global supply is tight, world demand remains firm.
This scenario further amplifies the country's importance on the coffee scene.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), world coffee stocks at the start of the 2025/26 harvest are at their lowest level in 25 years, at just 21.8 million bags. As a result, Brazilian production has become an essential stabilizing factor for the global market.
The 2025 coffee crop presents a scenario of recovery for conilon and challenges for arabica. The 2025/26 crop had a slight increase of 0.7% compared to 2024/25, due to the increase in Conilon (+30%), while Arabica fell (-13.3%). Climatic factors, such as prolonged droughts and bienniality, influenced these different
results between crops.
This drop is mainly due to the low biennial cycle, in addition to the reduction in the area under production, since some producers opted to prune their areas due to
the expectation of low production. As a result, according to Conab, arabica productivity also fell by 9.9% to 23.7 bags per hectare. Minas Gerais, the largest arabica producing region, faced a long period of drought in 2024 and a summer drought in February and March 2025, which resulted in lower grain yields during processing.
Other arabica producing regions also felt the adverse effects. São Paulo recorded a 12.9% reduction in production, attributed to low bienniality and water restrictions combined with high temperatures. Espírito Santo, on the other hand, saw an 18.8% drop in arabica production. The, due to the negative biennial, producers prioritiz ed the vegative recovery of the plants to the detriment of their productive potential. Arabica plantations ins Paraná and Bahia, however, showed slight increases in production, benefiting from more favorable weather conditions or the entry of new production areas.
On the other hand, conilon coffee production showed a notable recovery, with an estimated 27 million bags, an increase of 37.2%
compared to the previous harvest. According to Conab, conilon productivity rose by a significant 37% to 53.8 bags per hectare. This improvement is attributed to the regularity of the weather during the critical stages of flowering and fruit formation, as well as the expansion of the area in recent years. Espírito Santo, the national leader in conilon, and Bahia, recorded more favorable conditions. This led to higher than expected productivity.
In Rondônia conilon production increased by 10.4%, even with climatic irregularities, due to the expansion of the cultivated area and genetic modernization. The conilon harvest, which began in April 2025, is already practically complete in most reagions.
From January to July 2025, Brazil exported 29.105 million bags, registering US$ 11.049 billion in the period, with the United States and Germany as the main destinations. Shipments generated US$ 9 billion, the highest figure for the period, despite a reduction in the volume exported.
Germany maintained its lead in coffee imports from Brazil in October, with 654,638 bags, followed by Italy, with 334,654 bags. Both, however, recorded drops in purchases, of 16.9% and 23% respectively. The United States, on the other hand, in the second month of the new rates, reduced imports by 52.8% compared to September 2024, purchasing 332,831 bags and falling to third place in the monthly ranking.
Despite the 18.4% reduction in the volume exported compared to the same period in 2024. This growth is due to the rise in international coffee prices, especially in the first few months of the year.
However, the lower availability of arabica coffee could affect trade flows. The 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee are also creating uncertainty in the futures markets.
With global stocks at their lowest level in 25 years, at just 21.8 million bags for 2025/26, the results of the Brazilian coffee crop become even more relevant.
The 13.3% reduction in Brazilian arabica production has a direct effect on the global supply of this variety. The drop in world stocks intensifies the market's sensitivity to any change in Brazilian production. On the other hand, the recovery of conilon, with a 37.2% increase in production, provides a counterpoint.
This production helps to balance the supply of robusta on the international market. However, a larger portion of Brazilian conilon is likely to be used for domestic consumption, which may limit the volume
exported andopen up space for other origins, such as Vietnam and Indonesia.
This supply dynamic has a direct impact on grain prices. In addition, although still under negotiation, the current 50% tariffs applied by the United States to Brazilian coffee, for example, alter trade flows and the volatility of global prices. This could lead the US market to seek coffee from
other origins, such as Colombia and Central American countries.
The lower availability of Brazilian arabica, together with the difference in prices compared to robusta,
alters the dynamics ofinternational trade. As a result, global demand
for robusta tends to increase. This scenario, coupled with low stocks and logistical challenges, results in high price volatility.
The outlook for the 2026/27 coffee crop in Brazil is still uncertain, and is strongly conditioned by climatic developments. The regularity of the rainfall over the next few months will be crucial for the development of the "chumbinhos" and the filling of the beans. However, producer investment, driven by
high coffee prices, suggests a potential recovery for the next cycle.
For arabica coffee, the recovery of production potential will depend directly on the rainfall in the coming months,
which is essential for the development of the leaflets. High levels of rainfall, such as those observed in April 2025, have already contributed to improving the conditions of the coffee trees, setting the stage for a possible recovery. Producers have directed resources to the crops, aiming for better future performance.
In the case of conilon, the continued favorable rainfall in the main producing regions, such as Espírito Santo and southern Bahia, is a positive sign for the 26/27 harvest.
At the moment, the coffee plantations are also in the process of developing the corms, with the beans expected to fill by the end of the year. In addition, the expansion of conilon growing areas in recent years, with some already in production for the next cycle,
promises to boost supply. If the weather conditions remain favorable, positive results are expected for the next harvest.
Given the complexity of the market for agricultural commodities such as coffee, market intelligence and reliable data are crucial.
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