The coffee crop in Brazil in 2025 presented a contrasting scenario, with arabica production falling and conilon production rising, influenced by the negative biennial and climatic challenges, such as prolonged droughts. However, preliminary projections for the 2026/27 cycle indicate a significant advance in total production, signaling a possible recovery in global stocks, which are at their lowest level in 25 years.
For this next cycle in Brazil, estimates point to a harvest that could reach record volumes, driven mainly by the expected recovery for the arabica variety. This optimistic scenario is crucial because the country's performance, as one of the world's largest producers and exporters, directly influences supply, demand and prices in the global coffee market.
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The 2025/26 coffee crop was marked by adverse weather conditions and a negative biennial for arabica, resulting in an estimated total production of 64.7 million bags, according to Hedgepoint. The total volume of coffee harvested in the 2025/26 season, according to the USDA, is expected to fall slightly by 2.0 million bags to 63.0 million.
Arabica, which in the previous cycle totaled 37.7 million bags in the Hedgepoint estimate, faced a 13.3% drop in production due mainly to the low biennial cycle and the reduction in production area, with producers opting to prune their areas.
Arabica productivity also fell by 9.9% to 23.7 bags per hectare, according to Conab. Minas Gerais, the main producing region, suffered from prolonged drought in 2024 and a summer drought at the beginning of 2025, which resulted in grains with lower yields in processing. Espírito Santo also recorded an 18.8% drop in arabica production.
Conilon coffee, on the other hand, showed a significant recovery, with an estimate of 27 million bags by Hedgepoint, representing an increase of 37.2% compared to the previous harvest. According to Conab, conilon productivity rose by 37% to 53.8 bags per hectare, making Espírito Santo the national leader in this crop. The improvement in conilon is due to the regularity of the climate and the expansion of the area, with Rondônia and Espírito Santo showing more favorable conditions.
This contrasting performance between coffee varieties defines the basis for optimistic projections for the 2026/27 harvest, which tends to enter a positive biennial cycle for arabica.
The Brazilian coffee crop for the 2026/27 cycle has a total production estimated by Hedgepoint of between 71 and 74.4 million bags of coffee. In line with this forecast, consultancy Safras & Mercado preliminarily estimates a record 71 million bags, up 10.5% on the previous cycle. This growth is driven by more favorable weather compared to the drought in the previous cycle.
Projections for 2026/27 indicate that the increase in total production will be mainly driven by arabica coffee, with several regions entering a positive biennial period, as well as favorable weather after mid-October. Hedgepoint projects Arabica production at between 46.5 and 49 million bags, significantly higher than the 37.7 million bags harvested in the 2025/26 cycle. Arabica production is expected to increase, supported by new planted areas and improved tree management, but is unlikely to reach the levels of the 20/21 crop.
Conilon (robusta) coffee is expected to produce between 24.6 and 25.4 million bags. This projection represents a drop of 6% to 9% compared to the 27 million bags of the 2025/26 cycle, but still remains in the high range of production. The reduction is expected after the previous strong cycle, in which the plants used up most of their energy. However, the expansion of cultivated areas in recent years, stimulated by high prices since 2023, partially offsets the expected decline, with new areas coming into production this cycle.
Despite the optimistic projections, Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop is heavily dependent on climatic developments, which remain a challenging and uncertain factor. The regularity of the rains in the crucial months of development, especially for the filling of the beans (December to March), will be crucial for the final figures. A period of drought from August to early October 2025 created uncertainty and delayed the flowering of arabica, causing losses in part of the first flowers.
According to Conab, the adverse climatic scenario, including drought and intense heat, has been recurrent and limits production potential, even in years of positive biennials. The "after-effects" of the adverse weather conditions of recent years still limit the productive potential of the arabica variety.
In addition to climate issues, the variability of production cycles and the need to renew older crops can reduce the production response in various regions.
The global market also introduces uncertainties. World coffee stocks are at low levels, which maintains the market's vulnerability to any climatic adversity that could cause short-term price spikes.
Although the removal of most US tariffs on Brazilian coffee has led to a more pessimistic outlook in the short-term market, low stocks at destinations, including ICE-certified stocks, will continue to be an important factor for price movements, maintaining some support.
Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop could mark a new historical record and restore global supply after challenging cycles, but the combination of climate uncertainties, volatility in the financial markets and low global stocks requires robust risk management.
Agents in the commodities chain need to adopt protection tools to ensure predictability, margins and safer decisions in the face of a complex panorama.
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