Corn exports in Brazil are marked by record volumes, driven by the historic production of the 2024/25 harvest. However, the shipment cycle presents significant challenges that could limit the pace and influence domestic prices. These include fierce international competition, especially from the United States and Argentina, and internal logistical bottlenecks, such as the dispute for space in port terminals with soybeans.
In order for market players to be able to position themselves strategically and understand the complexity of the current scenario, it is essential to analyze the projections, the most recent outflow data and the factors that affect the competitiveness of Brazilian corn.
In this article, we'll discuss:
Read on!
For the 2024/25 harvest, Brazilian corn production reached record volumes, with the close of the season estimated by Hedgepoint Global Markets at between 138 and 140 million tons (with a positive adjustment bias in the coming weeks), and Conab (National Supply Company) consolidating the volume at 141.1 million tons. This record production was mainly due to high productivity in the field and an increase in the area planted with second crop corn.
Consolidated exports for this harvest were also high, due to greater domestic availability and redirected international demand for the South American grain. Conab expects 40 million tons of exports in the 2024/25 harvest, while Hedgepoint expects the season to close at 42 million tons.
Projections for the 2025/26 harvest
For the 2025/26 harvest, projections indicate an expansion in the area cultivated for both the first and second corn harvests. Conab estimates that total production will be 138.6 million tons, lower than the previous cycle. This reduction reflects the exceptional level of productivity achieved in the 2024/25 harvest, which was favored by largely positive weather conditions.
With regard to exports, projections are also advancing for 2025/26, supported by the maintenance of the good production surplus. Conab estimates that the volume will reach 46.5 million tons, while the USDA projects around 43 million tons.
Recent export data
In 2025, Brazil exported a total of 40.98 million tons of corn, up 3% on the 39.78 million tons recorded in 2024. The highlight was the month of December 2025, when 6.13 million tons were shipped, a significant jump of 44% compared to the 4.27 million tons exported in December 2024.
This volume generated revenues of US$1.33 billion in December, an increase of 46% year-on-year. The performance was driven mainly by the state of Mato Grosso, which exported 3.67 million tons in the month, and by strong demand from destinations such as Iran, which imported 1.65 million tons in December (up 97% against Dec/24). Until the first week of January 2026, the pace remains hot, with 1.67 million tons already shipped.
Brazilian corn is facing fierce competition on the global market, mainly due to the harvest of a record crop in the United States and the expectation of a full crop in Argentina, which are putting pressure on export windows and premiums for the national product. The world scenario points to a well-supplied commodity, which intensifies competition between the major exporters.
The United States harvested a record crop in 2025/26, estimated at 432.2 million tons, according to the latest USDA data. This high volume is accompanied by robust exports, projected at 81.3 million tons. The large US volume available for export, coupled with attractive prices, increases competition with Brazilian corn on the international market, posing challenges for Brazil's product.
Argentina is another important factor in global supply, with a projected production of 53 million tons and exports of 37 million tons in the 2025/26 harvest. This extra volume could put pressure on Brazil's margins and export premiums, given the proximity and competitiveness of the Argentine product.
The main logistical obstacle to corn exports in Brazil is the dispute over capacity at port terminals. The flow of corn, which intensifies in the second half of the year, occurs at the same time as the need to export a significant portion of the record soybean crop.
This competition for terminals creates bottlenecks and delays, which can hinder the pace of corn shipments. In addition, there are obstacles related to infrastructure and delays in field work during the agricultural season. The slow pace of harvesting and sales by farmers is also a factor.
Despite these limitations, the outlook is for progress in export volumes, although competition with the United States and Argentina is likely to be fierce in the coming months.
Domestic demand for corn in Brazil is heating up strongly, mainly due to the expansion of corn ethanol production, which is a new structural source of consumption. This high domestic demand is supporting corn prices and helping to modulate local oversupply.
Conab projects consumption of 90.6 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 harvest, an increase of 7.8% on the previous harvest. For 2025/26, domestic consumption is expected to grow by 4.5% to 94.6 million tons, driven by greater demand for corn for ethanol production.
The export parity and the good level of shipments provide some support for sellers, who are limiting the volume of goods for immediate delivery, reinforcing the firmness of domestic prices. However, the arrival of the US harvest, the need for Brazilian farmers to free up warehouses and high carryover stocks could limit advances in domestic prices.
At the moment, the Brazilian corn market is marked by abundant supply, strong international competition and complex logistical bottlenecks. Decision-making requires access to data and analysis to help understand the flow of prices and disposal windows.
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