Cotton crop 2024/25 in Brazil: learn about production forecasts, market factors and marketing prospects for the lint.
.png)
The 2024/25 cotton crop, which is already in the process of being harvested in Brazil, stands out for its expressive volume projections, despite a slow marketing scenario. Understanding the factors that shape this outlook is essential for producers and investors in the sector.
That's why we've analyzed production, supply and demand estimates, as well as the external and internal elements that influence the lint market. In our content, you will understand:
Happy reading!
According to the National Supply Company (Conab), the current production estimate points to 4.061 million tons of cotton lint, an increase of 9.7% over the previous cycle. This result comes from a 7.3% expansion in the area under cultivation.
The cotton harvest is already in its final stages in the main producing states. Mato Grosso remains the leader, accounting for 68.3% of national production, followed by Bahia with 21.6%. Most of the crops (75.7%) are in the ripening stage, 16.8% in fruit formation, and around 7.5% of the total area has already been harvested, according to data from Conab (Crop Monitoring, September 1 to 7, 2025).
Read also:
The weather regime had different impacts on the cotton harvest, favoring cultivation in some regions and causing adversity in others. In Mato Grosso, the alternation of rainfall influenced the first and second crops to varying degrees, with intense rainfall affecting the first but benefiting the second.
On the other hand, Bahia recorded irregular rainfall, which contributed to an expected reduction in productivity. In Minas Gerais, prolonged drought during the phase of defining production potential compromised a large part of the rainfed area. However, irrigated crops continued to perform well.
Mato Grosso do Sul faced mild temperatures and irregular rainfall, which caused delays in the harvest and concerns about the quality of the lint. Maranhão also had problems with excessive humidity, which caused structures to rot. In contrast, Piauí and Pará reported favorable weather conditions, boosting area expansion and crop development.
Cotton producers dealt with various phytosanitary issues that required careful management during the crop cycle. In Mato Grosso, the caterpillar complex and the cotton bollworm stand out as the main problems and require regular interventions to minimize possible losses.
In Bahia, the infestation of whitefly and caterpillars, together with the rotting of the ratoon, had an impact on the expected productivity. In Maranhão, rotting of structures and losses due to poor capillary formation occurred due to excessive humidity. Damage from the cotton bollworm and caterpillars also affected quality.
In Goiás, there were occasional problems with pests and diseases. Phytosanitary control was efficient, with low use of pesticides in the current harvest.
Negotiations on the domestic market continue at a slow pace, according to surveys by Cepea/Esalq. The plume indicator, with payment in eight days, has accumulated a significant drop since June and was quoted at R$3.6590 per pound on September 12, 2025, reflecting pressure from buyers and the downturn in domestic demand.
This commercial slowdown reflects the greater supply of the product as the harvest progresses and the retraction in purchases, which shows a more contained demand. Producers expressed concern about current prices, which remain lower than expected and historically low.
Read also:
External factors have a major influence on the cotton market and shape the global supply and demand scenario. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that world cotton consumption for the current season will reach 25.7 million tons1. Brazil, the world's third largest producer and leading exporter, expects 2.97 million tons in exports, with Asia as the primary destination, including Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Turkey.
China, traditionally the biggest importer of Brazilian lint, has significantly reduced its purchases. This decline is due to the large Chinese harvest and the downturn in domestic consumption.
Other elements, such as geopolitical tensions, climate uncertainties in countries like China, Canada and Uruguay, and the reduction in Russia's exportable surplus, contribute to global instability. Competition with synthetic fibers, derived from oil, represents a persistent challenge for the textile sector, both in Brazil and globally.
The projected national production of lint cotton in September 2025 is 4.061 million tons. According to the USDA (WASDE 2024/25) , opening stocks are approximately 616,000 tons (2.83 million bales), resulting in a total supply of around 4.55 million tons. Imports are residual and therefore have no significant impact on the balance sheet.
On the other hand, domestic consumption of lint in 2025 is estimated at 760,000 tons, while exports are expected to reach 2.97 million tons. This dynamic, of high supply and relatively moderate demand, projects an increase in final stocks, which could reach around 820,000 tons by the end of the harvest.
To operate successfully in the commodities market, which is constantly fluctuating in value, it is essential to have access to accurate market intelligence. Understanding the dynamics of supply and demand, both local and global, helps you make prudent decisions. Thus, hedging instruments are important to protect operations against exchange rate and price volatility, as they provide greater financial security.
Hedgepoint Global Markets offers knowledge and tools for managing the risks inherent in the agricultural market. Subscribe to the Hedgepoint HUB to access exclusive content, in-depth analysis and courses. Find out today how to improve your vision of the sector.
Rua Funchal, 418, 18º andar - Vila Olímpia São Paulo, SP, Brasil
Contato
(00) 99999-8888 example@mail.com
-1.png)
-1.jpg)