Global cocoa market remains volatile despite surplus forecast for 2026, says Hedgepoint

In the cocoa market, the 2026 outlook highlights a scenario still marked by volatility. Marketing challenges in West Africa, climate risks linked to a possible El Niño and demand under pressure continue to influence global price dynamics. 

Throughout the blog, you can already follow content dedicated to different markets - and in this 2026 special, we've gathered the main insights for coffee, highlighting trends that should influence these sectors in the coming months.  

In the cocoa market, the analysis is led by Carolina França, the company's Market Intelligence analyst, who is responsible for monitoring supply and demand fundamentals and climate impacts on global production.  

According to the expert, volatility remains one of the biggest challenges facing the global cocoa market in 2026, even with the projected surplus for the 25/26 harvest. Recent marketing problems in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, climatic risks associated with a possible El Niño and technical movements on the stock exchanges continue to exert a strong influence on price behavior. 
 
"It's a market that, despite the surplus, still responds very quickly to any change in fundamentals," says Ana Carolina Ferreira França, Market Intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint. 

Demand still under pressure  

Consumption indicators continue to weaken in the main processing markets. In the European Union, imports of almonds fell by 12.1% in the first three months of the 25/26 harvest, while milling fell by 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This environment reflects high prices and supply restrictions.
 
"Demand still faces a challenging scenario, especially in Europe, where costs continue to put pressure on industrial activity," explains França. 

In the United States, the dynamic is more resilient: net imports have returned to levels close to the historical average, driven by greater purchases from Ecuador, which has benefited from more competitive differentials compared to African origins. Even so, global demand is likely to remain under pressure, as a large part of the industry has purchased cocoa at historically high prices, which keeps costs high and limits the recovery in consumption. 

Partial recovery of supply in the main origins  

Weather conditions are being closely monitored. In Côte d'Ivoire, accumulated rainfall is close to average and production is estimated at around 1.78 million tons, although drier weeks could affect the intermediate crop. In Ghana, excessive rainfall raises concerns about diseases, with production estimated at 650,000 tons. Ecuador continues to grow and is expected to reach 615,000 tons, even with rainfall below the historical average. 

"The origins are showing some relief in production, but still in a much more fragile environment than the market would like," says the analyst. 

Global balance still sensitive  

Hedgepoint estimates a global surplus of approximately 365,000 tons for the 25/26 harvest, the result of a combination of a partial recovery in supply (+4.2%) and a contraction in demand (-3%). Although the balance is positive, the market remains vulnerable to any change in fundamentals. "The surplus exists, but it doesn't represent respite. The structure of the market remains delicate and susceptible to rapid revisions," says França. 

Marketing problems in West Africa  

The domestic price paid to producers has been a critical point in recent market distortions. With lower international prices, the domestic prices set by Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana were above the market, affecting marketing and reducing the pace of exports. 

Hedgepoint had anticipated the need for an adjustment, which was recently confirmed: Côte d'Ivoire announced a 57% cut in the producer price, to 1,200 CFA francs/kg. The country has also brought forward the start of the intermediate harvest to March, seeking to normalize flows and free up remaining stocks. "These changes should improve flows in the short term, but they could also alter the calendar and expectations for the 26/27 harvest," says França. 

El Niño could alter supply for the 2026/27 harvest  

Another point of attention is the increased likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of 2026. The phenomenon tends to cause hotter and drier conditions in West Africa and heavier rains in Ecuador, affecting the development of the main crop and the intermediate crop of the 26/27 cycle. 

"If El Niño is confirmed, climate risk will become the most important factor to monitor in the coming months," the analyst warns. 

Technical market maintains bearish bias  

Despite the weekly rise of 11.8% in New York and 12.6% in London, the market remains bearish. The RSI remains close to oversold territory, opening up space for technical corrections, such as profit-taking and hedging of short positions by funds. The recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has also added volatility to the macro scenario and may be influencing the behavior of prices. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Global Markets LLC and its affiliates ("HPGM") solely for informational and instructional purposes and is not intended to establish obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, currencies and swaps or investment products. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC ("HPC"), a wholly owned entity of HPGM, is an Introducing Broker and a registered member of the National Futures Association. Trading futures, options, currencies and swaps involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hedgepoint clients should rely on their own independent judgment and that of external advisors before entering into any transaction that is introduced by the company. HPGM and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for any use of the information contained herein that results directly or indirectly in damages of any kind. If you have any questions that are not resolved by our customer service team (client.services@hedgepointglobal.com), please contact our internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com) or 0800-878 8408/ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com (for customers in Brazil only).