In the cocoa market, the 2026 outlook highlights a scenario still marked by volatility. Marketing challenges in West Africa, climate risks linked to a possible El Niño and demand under pressure continue to influence global price dynamics.
Throughout the blog, you can already follow content dedicated to different markets - and in this 2026 special, we've gathered the main insights for coffee, highlighting trends that should influence these sectors in the coming months.
In the cocoa market, the analysis is led by Carolina França, the company's Market Intelligence analyst, who is responsible for monitoring supply and demand fundamentals and climate impacts on global production.
According to the expert, volatility remains one of the biggest challenges facing the global cocoa market in 2026, even with the projected surplus for the 25/26 harvest. Recent marketing problems in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, climatic risks associated with a possible El Niño and technical movements on the stock exchanges continue to exert a strong influence on price behavior.
"It's a market that, despite the surplus, still responds very quickly to any change in fundamentals," says Ana Carolina Ferreira França, Market Intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint.
Consumption indicators continue to weaken in the main processing markets. In the European Union, imports of almonds fell by 12.1% in the first three months of the 25/26 harvest, while milling fell by 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This environment reflects high prices and supply restrictions.
"Demand still faces a challenging scenario, especially in Europe, where costs continue to put pressure on industrial activity," explains França.
In the United States, the dynamic is more resilient: net imports have returned to levels close to the historical average, driven by greater purchases from Ecuador, which has benefited from more competitive differentials compared to African origins. Even so, global demand is likely to remain under pressure, as a large part of the industry has purchased cocoa at historically high prices, which keeps costs high and limits the recovery in consumption.
Weather conditions are being closely monitored. In Côte d'Ivoire, accumulated rainfall is close to average and production is estimated at around 1.78 million tons, although drier weeks could affect the intermediate crop. In Ghana, excessive rainfall raises concerns about diseases, with production estimated at 650,000 tons. Ecuador continues to grow and is expected to reach 615,000 tons, even with rainfall below the historical average.
"The origins are showing some relief in production, but still in a much more fragile environment than the market would like," says the analyst.
Hedgepoint estimates a global surplus of approximately 365,000 tons for the 25/26 harvest, the result of a combination of a partial recovery in supply (+4.2%) and a contraction in demand (-3%). Although the balance is positive, the market remains vulnerable to any change in fundamentals. "The surplus exists, but it doesn't represent respite. The structure of the market remains delicate and susceptible to rapid revisions," says França.
The domestic price paid to producers has been a critical point in recent market distortions. With lower international prices, the domestic prices set by Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana were above the market, affecting marketing and reducing the pace of exports.
Hedgepoint had anticipated the need for an adjustment, which was recently confirmed: Côte d'Ivoire announced a 57% cut in the producer price, to 1,200 CFA francs/kg. The country has also brought forward the start of the intermediate harvest to March, seeking to normalize flows and free up remaining stocks. "These changes should improve flows in the short term, but they could also alter the calendar and expectations for the 26/27 harvest," says França.
Another point of attention is the increased likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of 2026. The phenomenon tends to cause hotter and drier conditions in West Africa and heavier rains in Ecuador, affecting the development of the main crop and the intermediate crop of the 26/27 cycle.
"If El Niño is confirmed, climate risk will become the most important factor to monitor in the coming months," the analyst warns.
Despite the weekly rise of 11.8% in New York and 12.6% in London, the market remains bearish. The RSI remains close to oversold territory, opening up space for technical corrections, such as profit-taking and hedging of short positions by funds. The recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has also added volatility to the macro scenario and may be influencing the behavior of prices.