---
title: Ukraine and the commodities market impact 2 years after the conflict started – Hedgepoint Global Markets
description: It’s been 2 years since the conflict in Ukraine began in February 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian territory has had significant consequences for the c
image: https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Featured-Image-1-Jun-16-2025-12-27-03-9489-PM.webp
---

![LOGO 2](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/LOGO%202.png "LOGO 2")

# Ukraine and the commodities market impact 2 years after the conflict started

It’s been 2 years since the conflict in Ukraine began in February 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian territory has had significant consequences for the c

**Hedgepoint Global Markets**  
Mar 6, 2024 12:00:00 AM

![](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Featured-Image-1-Jun-16-2025-12-27-03-9489-PM.webp)

It’s been 2 years since the conflict **in Ukraine began** in February 2022. **Russia’s invasion of **Ukrainian territory has had significant consequences for the **commodities market**.

Among the consequences were significant changes in the global trade **flow of **various **agricultural products**.  The world experienced a supply disruption immediately after the invasion: the **European Union **had to establish alternative land transportation routes in the **Black Sea**.

![](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/chris-trant-2-3.png?width=187&height=130&name=chris-trant-2-3.png)

In this exclusive content, we give you the whole picture two years after the conflict. We highlight the most important points from our webinar [*“*](https://vimeo.com/915368812/750a79cf04?share=copy)[***Ukraine conflict and commodity markets: two years later***](https://www.hedgepointhub.com/path-player?courseid=webinaroutlook&unit=65dce31633755710cf0c06c2Unit)[*“*](https://vimeo.com/915368812/750a79cf04?share=copy), presented by **Chris Trant**, **Head of Agriculture at hEDGEpoint in **the **United States**.

Keep reading!

## **Ukraine: impacts of the conflict on the country’s agriculture**

The conflict in Ukraine has had major impacts on the country’s agriculture. Among them, we highlight the following data obtained from a survey by the **FAO **(**Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations**):

- **Smaller production area: **at the local level, farmers reported a 9% decrease in the size of the **area under cultivation for grains and oilseeds **compared to the pre-conflict period.
- **Increase in production costs: **93% of companies involved in **agricultural production **reported an increase in costs.
- **Unexploded bombs: **approximately 12% of farmers reported that part of their land is potentially contaminated by unexploded ordnance.
- **Changes in agricultural decisions**: almost 40% of all farmers pointed to changes in their agricultural operational decisions due to the conflict. One of the main measures is the limited use of [**agricultural inputs**](https://hedgepointglobal.com/blog/how-does-the-value-of-inputs-affect-agricultural-production/?hsLang=en) such as **seeds**, **pesticides **and **fertilizers**.

However, in recent seasons, favorable weather has mitigated the negative effects of the conflict on the country’s production and contributed to **good yields**. Two other movements were also important in this recovery:

- The largest volume is exported via the Danube River ports + the Romanian port of Constanta.
- Efforts by the Ukrainian navy to secure the flow through Odessa.

![Impactos do conflito na Ucrânia no mercado de commodities após 2 anos ](https://static.hsstatic.net/BlogImporterAssetsUI/ex/missing-image.png)

Leia mais:

- [**Conflito na Ucrânia**](https://hedgepointglobal.com/pt-br/blog/guerra-na-ucrania-os-principais-impactos-no-mercado-de-commodities/?hsLang=en)**: os principais impactos no mercado de commodities**

## **Russia: leading the world in wheat production **

With the conflict, Western sanctions affected the Russian economy. As a result, the country achieved smaller **trade **surpluses. In general, Russia’s agricultural exports were not significantly impacted by the conflict.

The country’s record production has led to very high levels of **wheat exports**. Russia also has an **advantage **in continuing to export its wheat at cheap prices: most of its main importers are **geopolitical allies, **such as **Egypt **and **Turkey**.

![Impactos do conflito na Ucrânia](https://static.hsstatic.net/BlogImporterAssetsUI/ex/missing-image.png)

## **Commodity trade flows in the Black Sea: what has changed so far?**

Despite all the challenges posed by the two-year conflict, the Black Sea’s share of total **global grain and oilseed exports **has increased.

Regarding prices, even with logistical challenges, Ukraine’s **FOB value **is one of the lowest in the world. At the same time, the large **production of Russian wheat **has remained extremely competitive in the market.

With the passage of grain through the Black Sea, Ukraine has been able to export more. But recently, the country has surpassed the figures obtained during the period when the Grain Corridor was in force.

![Impactos do conflito na Ucrânia](https://static.hsstatic.net/BlogImporterAssetsUI/ex/missing-image.png)

Despite the **initial **strong **shock to supply and prices**, the **global commodities markets have **rebalanced. **Trade routes**, previously unthinkable, have become a reality.

### ●      **Outlook for 2024**

Two years after the conflict, exports** via the Black Sea have **become increasingly important. Of the 8.1 billion people on the planet, 2.5 billion depend on wheat from the Black Sea.

However, due to the reduction in corn exports from Ukraine, the role of the Black Sea is likely to diminish this year. With lower imports from China, which currently imports the **commodity **mainly from **Brazil **and the **United States**.

The **world wheat stock/consumption **ratio is the tightest since 13/14. Almost all the main producing countries had smaller harvests compared to the previous year, which caused a tight global balance.

In the coming months, **trade flows **will continue to be in the spotlight around the world, as the **wheat harvest **in the region begins at the start of the second half of the year. However, there are some indicators of another large harvest in Russia, with favorable weather.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is expected to have another harvest slightly above the 20-million-ton mark in terms of production.

Read also:

- **General outlook for **[**agricultural and energy commodities**](https://hedgepointglobal.com/blog/outlook-for-agricultural-and-energy-commodities-in-2024/?hsLang=en)** in 2024**

## **Conflict in Ukraine: review the main events that marked the market**

To help you understand the main events triggered by the conflict in Ukraine, we’ve put together a timeline below. Check it out!

![](https://static.hsstatic.net/BlogImporterAssetsUI/ex/missing-image.png)

## ** hEDGEpoint HUB: market intelligence to manage risks **

As you can see, the **commodities market is volatile**. Subject to fluctuations in **supply and demand **triggered by issues such as **geopolitical conflicts, risk management **is essential.

By using sophisticated [**hedging**](https://hedgepointglobal.com/blog/fundamentals-hedging-what-is-it/?hsLang=en)** products**, players in this sector can **protect **themselves **from volatility**. At **hEDGEpoint**, we combine **market intelligence, **with up-to-date reports, with hedging **tools **that help the entire **agricultural and energy commodities chain**.

To this end, we offer **hEDGEpoint HUB, **our **educational platform **adapted to different levels of knowledge. With a global team, we deeply analyze all the aspects that can influence the commodities market.

[**Subscribe to the hEDGEpoint HUB**](https://www.hedgepointhub.com/) and get exclusive access to our content!

## Similar Blog Posts

[![El Niño May Reduce Global Wheat and Palm Oil Supply and Increase Market Volatility](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/32-2.png)

### El Niño May Reduce Global Wheat and Palm Oil Supply and Increase Market Volatility

El Niño is once again on the radar of global agricultural markets. Although it is a recurring climate phenomenon, its impacts vary depending on it...

](https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/el-ni%C3%B1o-may-reduce-global-wheat-and-palm-oil-supply-and-increase-market-volatility?hsLang=en)

[![El Niño Reinforces Climate Uncertainty for Global Cocoa Production](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/28-1.png)

### El Niño Reinforces Climate Uncertainty for Global Cocoa Production

El Niño is once again on the radar of global agricultural markets. Although it is a recurring climate phenomenon, its impacts vary depending on it...

](https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/el-ni%C3%B1o-reinforces-climate-uncertainty-for-global-cocoa-production?hsLang=en)

[![El Niño Enters the Radar of the Coffee Market and May Affect Key Producing Origins in the Coming Cycles](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/27-1.png)

### El Niño Enters the Radar of the Coffee Market and May Affect Key Producing Origins in the Coming Cycles

El Niño is once again on the radar of global agricultural markets. Although it is a recurring climate phenomenon, its impacts vary depending on it...

](https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/el-ni%C3%B1o-enters-the-radar-of-the-coffee-market-and-may-affect-key-producing-origins-in-the-coming-cycles?hsLang=en)

![LOGO 2](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/LOGO%202.png "LOGO 2")

Rua Funchal, 418, 18º andar - Vila Olímpia São Paulo, SP, Brasil

Contato

(00) 99999-8888           [example@mail.com](mailto:example@mail.com)

[![linkedin-1](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hs-fs/hubfs/linkedin-1.png?width=20&height=20&name=linkedin-1.png)](https://www.facebook.com)    ![youtube](https://hedgepointglobal.com/hs-fs/hubfs/youtube.png?width=20&height=14&name=youtube.png)

 

Section

Home

O que Fazemos

Mercado

Quem Somos

HUB

Blog

 Confira nossos termos gerais e avisos importantes

*Esta página foi preparada pela Hedgepoint Schweiz AG e suas afiliadas (“Hedgepoint”) exclusivamente para fins informativos e instrutivos, sem o objetivo de estabelecer obrigações ou compromissos com terceiros, nem de promover uma oferta ou solicitação de oferta de venda ou compra de quaisquer valores mobiliários, commodity interests ou produtos de investimento.*

*A Hedgepoint e suas associadas renunciam expressamente a qualquer uso das informações contidas neste documento que direta ou indiretamente resulte em danos ou prejuízos de qualquer natureza. As informações são obtidas de fontes que acreditamos serem confiáveis, mas não garantimos a atualidade ou precisão dessas informações.*  
*O trading de commodity interests, como futuros, opções e swaps, envolve um risco substancial de perda e pode não ser adequado para todos os investidores. Você deve considerar cuidadosamente se esse tipo de negociação é adequado para você, levando em conta sua situação financeira. O desempenho passado não é necessariamente indicativo de resultados futuros. Os clientes devem confiar em seu próprio julgamento independente e/ou consultores antes de realizar qualquer transação.*  
*A Hedgepoint não fornece consultoria jurídica, tributária ou contábil, sendo de sua responsabilidade buscar essas orientações separadamente.*

*A Hedgepoint Schweiz AG está organizada, constituída e existente sob as leis da Suíça, é afiliada à ARIF, a Associação Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, que é uma Organização de Autorregulação autorizada pela FINMA. A Hedgepoint Commodities LLC está organizada, constituída e existente sob as leis dos Estados Unidos, sendo autorizada e regulada pela Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) e é membro da National Futures Association (NFA), atuando como Introducing Broker e Commodity Trading Advisor. A Hedgepoint Global Markets Limited é regulada pela Dubai Financial Services Authority. O conteúdo é direcionado a Clientes Profissionais e não a Clientes de Varejo. A Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd está organizada, constituída e existente sob as leis de Singapura, isenta de obter uma licença de serviços financeiros conforme o Segundo Anexo do Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, pela Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). A Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. é autorizada e regulada no Brasil pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) e pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM). A Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. está organizada, constituída e existente sob as leis do Brasil. A Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. está organizada, constituída e existente sob as leis do Uruguai.*

*Em caso de dúvidas não resolvidas no primeiro contato com o atendimento ao cliente (client.services@hedgepointglobal.com), entre em contato com o canal de ouvidoria interna (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global ou ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – apenas Brasil) ou ligue para 0800-8788408 (apenas Brasil).*  
*Integridade, ética e transparência são valores que guiam nossa cultura. Para fortalecer ainda mais nossas práticas, a Hedgepoint possui um canal de denúncias para colaboradores e terceiros via e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com ou pelo formulário Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.*

*Nota de segurança: Todos os contatos com clientes e parceiros são realizados exclusivamente por meio do nosso domínio @hedgepointglobal.com. Não aceite informações, boletos, extratos ou solicitações de outros domínios e preste atenção especial a variações em letras ou grafias, pois podem indicar uma situação fraudulenta.*  
*“Hedgepoint” e o logotipo “Hedgepoint” são marcas de uso exclusivo da Hedgepoint e/ou de suas afiliadas. O uso ou reprodução é proibido, a menos que expressamente autorizado pela HedgePoint.*

*Além disso, o uso de outras marcas neste documento foi autorizado apenas para fins de identificação. Isso, portanto, não implica quaisquer direitos da HedgePoint sobre essas marcas ou implica endosso, associação ou aprovação pelos proprietários dessas marcas com a Hedgepoint ou suas afiliadas.*

*aA Hedgepoint Global Markets é correspondente cambial do Ebury Banco de Câmbio, de acordo com a resolução CMN Nº 4.935, DE 29 DE JULHO DE 2021, Artigo 14 do Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN).*

*Para mais informações sobre nosso parceiro, serviços disponíveis, atendimento e ouvidoria, acesse o link a seguir: https://br.ebury.com/*

```json
{
  "@context" : "https://schema.org",
  "@type" : "BlogPosting",
  "author" : {
    "@type" : "Person",
    "name" : "Hedgepoint Global Markets",
    "url" : "https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/author/hedgepoint-global-markets"
  },
  "dateModified" : "2025-06-16T12:38:55.590Z",
  "datePublished" : "2024-03-06T03:00:00.000Z",
  "headline" : "Ukraine and the commodities market impact 2 years after the conflict started – Hedgepoint Global Markets",
  "image" : [ "https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Featured-Image-1-Jun-16-2025-12-27-03-9489-PM.webp" ],
  "mainEntityOfPage" : {
    "@id" : "https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/ukraine-and-the-commodities-market-impact-2-years-after-the-conflict-started",
    "@type" : "WebPage"
  },
  "publisher" : {
    "@type" : "Organization",
    "logo" : {
      "@type" : "ImageObject",
      "url" : "https://hedgepointglobal.com/hubfs/Hedgepoint-logo-square-2-1.png"
    },
    "name" : "Hedgepoint Global Markets"
  }
}
```