---
title: "Whitepaper hEDGEpoint: Recession Risk – What to expect in commodity markets – Hedgepoint Global Markets"
description:  In today’s ever-changing economic landscape, it’s crucial for market professionals to stay informed about the potential impact of a recession on commodity
---

[HEDGEPOINT - BLOG ](https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog)

# [Whitepaper hEDGEpoint: Recession Risk – What to expect in commodity markets – Hedgepoint Global Markets](https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/whitepaper-hedgepoint-recession-risk)

 Written by [Hedgepoint Global Markets](https://hedgepointglobal.com/en/blog/author/hedgepoint-global-markets) | Jul 21, 2023 3:00:00 AM

######  In today’s ever-changing economic landscape, it’s crucial for market professionals to stay informed about the potential impact of a recession on commodity markets. Understanding these dynamics can help you make informed decisions and seize opportunities during uncertain times. hEDGEpoint’s Market Intelligence team prepared a deep analysis of the impact of a recession scenario in the sugar, corn, soybeans, wheat, coffee, and energy markets.

| ### What are you going to find: ### Macro ###### Recessions affect commodity markets, with sugar, coffee, soybeans, corn, wheat, and energy being influenced by factors like supply, demand, weather, and price fluctuations. ### Sugar ###### The global sugar balance for 23/24 is expected to be a deficit, limiting potential losses from an economic downturn, despite the bearish risk of weather improvements. ### Coffee ###### Historical data shows that coffee prices tend to decline during recession periods. The global coffee balance is currently in a deficit. However, an optimistic perspective for the 24/25 crop in Brazil, both for arabica and robusta, weighs on the future curve. Weather conditions, especially the El Niño window, will remain a key factor until the end of 2023. ### Soybeans and Corn ###### During recessions, soybeans and corn are impacted by supply, demand, and economic factors, with consumption typically lower than predicted, and this year the US soybean market may be supply-driven while corn could be more recession-exposed. ### Wheat ###### Wheat, as a staple food, is generally less affected by recessions, but supply-driven price fluctuations can be intensified during economic downturns, influencing consumer behavior, although minimal effects are expected in a mild recession this year. ### Energy ###### The energy sector’s correlation with global economic growth, oil price fluctuations, inflation, interest rates, and the inverted US yield curve signals potential disruptions in the oil production and exploration market. | ### Sign up and receive the full material prepared by our Market Intelligence team. |
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##### <https://hedgepointglobal.com/market-intelligence/?hsLang=en>

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