Hedgepoint analysis of the global agricultural market post-WASDE report

The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) is one of the most important reports for the agricultural commodities sector. Published monthly by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), the document provides up-to-date data on various crops, indicating the movement of the North American market and global expectations.  

In this blog post, we’ll follow the full analysis by Ignacio Espinola, Market Intelligence Analyst at Hedgepoint, of the latest WASDE report, released in February 2025. The expert follows the publication of this report and shares complete insights on soybeans, corn and wheat. Check it out below and have a good read!  

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Analysis of the soybean market 

Professional Ignacio Espinola begins his analysis with the soybean crop. According to the expert, “the WASDE data didn’t bring any major surprises, but it still indicated figures that were different from those expected by the market“.  .

In Brazil, the estimate for soybeans remained stable at 169 million tons (Mt). In Argentina, production was cut from 52 Mt in January to 49 Mt in February, a drop of 5.8%. This cut was greater than expected, which was 50.6 Mt. 

In the global scenario, final soybean stocks were also reduced, from 128.4 Mt to 124.3 Mt. “This figure represents a drop of 3.1%. The estimate was below market expectations, which predicted stocks of around 128 Mt,” adds Ignácio.  

Finally, the Hedgepoint expert reports that the WASDE figures are unlikely to have a significant impact on the Chicago Stock Exchange. The report remains neutral to slightly bullish.  

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• Risk management in volatile times: expectations for 2025 

Agricultural market: analysis for corn 

According to Espinola, the corn adjustments compared to the last update brought expected estimates for South America. However, the figures for the United States remained unchanged, resulting in a neutral reading for the market. 

In Argentina, the production projection for the 24/25 harvest was reduced by 2%, falling from 51 million tons (Mt) to 50 Mt. “This change was expected due to recent weather conditions in the Argentine country,” adds Ignacio. 

A reduction of 1 Mt was also applied to Brazil’s corn production, falling from 127 Mt to 126 Mt, a drop of 0.8%. With regard to China, the WASDE report revised imports downwards, falling from 13 Mt to 10 Mt, a decrease of 23.0%.  

“As a result, the final stocks of corn in the Asian country went from 206.2 Mt to 203.2 Mt. This means that the stock-to-use ratio is 65%,” says the expert.  

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Estimates for wheat 

The Hedgepoint professional begins his analysis by pointing out that “the impact of the new WASDE report on the Chicago Stock Exchange was slightly bullish, despite not publishing any major surprises“.

For the United States, ending stocks fell slightly by 0.4%, from 21.7 million tons (Mt) to 21.6 Mt. In the global scenario, ending stocks were also revised downwards, from 258.8 Mt to 257.6 Mt. This drop represents a reduction of 0.5% compared to the previous month.  

“Finally, the document didn’t make any major changes for the Black Sea region. However, concern remains due to the recent frosts that could impact wheat production, especially in Russia,” Espinola concludes.

Follow the WASDE agricultural market reports 

Following the WASDE reports is essential for producers, traders and exporting and importing companies. These documents provide detailed information on the supply and demand of agricultural commodities on a global scale. They also act as a thermometer for the behavior of prices on the futures markets. 

In addition, this data makes it possible to base strategic decisions, minimize risks and identify hedging opportunities, especially in a context of high volatility and climatic uncertainties. To keep up to date, visit the official WASDE website. 

In addition to the commodities covered in this article, the report also covers the supply and use of sugar, meat, poultry eggs and milk from the United States, as well as global estimates. See the full January document for the other commodities and follow the next releases throughout 2025: 

• March 11th; 
• April 10th; 
• May 12th; 
• June 12th; 
• July 11th; 
• August 12th; 
• September 12th; 
• October 9th; 
• November 10th; 
• December 9th. 

Read also: 

• Understand the influence of the Federal Reserve (FED) on the Brazilian economy 

Check out the analysis reports on Hedgepoint HUB 

Every month, Hedgepoint experts such as Ignacio Espinola analyze the production and stock estimates from the WASDE reports. You can check these surveys directly on the Hedgepoint HUB.  

On the portal, you’ll also find valuable insights into the supply and demand of energy, agricultural and currency commodities, as well as analysis on key topics such as geopolitical decisions, crop projections, climate issues and more. Log in now and check out the latest publications: 

• Crop Projection: Brazil Soybeans – 2025 01 23 
• Insight into market dynamics 
• Can coffee prices continue to rise in 2025? 
• Global Sugar Balance and Trade Flows  

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