Corn and wheat: prospects and challenges for 2025

Hedgepoint’s Outlook 2025 on the corn and wheat markets was presented in February. This is the latest report on various agricultural commodities that the team of experts produces every year. In this article, you’ll find the main insights from the report, from data on supply, demand, macroeconomics and other variables.

Follow the other blog posts that deal with the outlooks of other cultures: 

• Agricultural commodities: coffee outlook for 2025
• Sugar market: Hedgepoint outlook 2025
• Soy and oilseeds outlook for 2025 

Read also: 

• Retrospective 2024: a year of volatility and challenges in the commodities market 

Overview of macroeconomics

The world economy has a strong influence on agricultural commodity prices. At the beginning of the Outlook, the Hedgepoint team covered the main information that could impact the market. See below: 

1. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) projects a drop in global inflation from 4.2% to 3.5% in 2025. The institution indicates that advanced economies are approaching their targets more quickly than emerging countries such as Brazil, India and China. 
2. The persistence of US dollar inflation remains a relevant factor. After Trump’s inauguration, the currency weakened due to delays in the implementation of tariffs and other measures.  
3. In Brazil, the real ended 2024 devalued, favoring exports. The Selic rate has risen, which could attract foreign capital, but fiscal uncertainties still limit the appreciation of the Brazilian currency. 
4. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to impact the global economy. Mineral deposits are becoming key to peace negotiations – Ukraine and Russia are negotiating available land with the United States.  
5. La Niña is currently active, but is expected to become neutral by May 2025 (66% chance), reducing the impact on agricultural crops.

 Read also: 

• Oil market highlights: 2024 and early 2025 data 

Outlook for the corn market 

The Hedgepoint team has gathered comprehensive data on the global corn market. Currently, some of the main producing countries are in the planting and/or harvesting phase. Take a look at the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) data on supply and demand in the major players. Then follow the insights from each country published in the outlook: 

Fonte: USDA

●     China 

In China, corn production is expected to reach record levels. This should reduce its need for imports in 2025. Data from the Hedgepoint report indicates that 2024/2025 production is projected at 294.9 million tons (Mt), as well as a yield of 6.59 tons per hectare (T/ha).

●     United States 

Despite record production in China, the United States remains the world’s largest producing country, even with a drop in production in 2024/25. The latest USDA report estimated American production at 377.6 million tons – down from the previous harvest of 389.7 Mt.  

Even with lower production, demand in the United States remains strong. Corn exports are expected to grow in 2024/25. The pace of exports remains above the average of the last five years and could exceed 60 million tons.  

●    Brazil 

Experts indicate that Brazilian corn production has the potential to grow and reach 126 million tons. The increase in the area of the second crop should allow for a bigger harvest, but the weather presents challenges. The current season should have better results than the previous one, but still below record levels: 

This production should boost exports, although competition with Argentinian and US corn will also increase. In addition, consumption of corn for ethanol in Brazil continues to grow rapidly, strengthening domestic demand. 

The team also points out that better prices for Brazilian corn are encouraging producers. The less humid climate and the progress of the soybean harvest favor the planting of the second crop – which is progressing at a good pace in Brazil.  

●     Argentina 

Argentina’s unfavorable weather continues to impact the country’s corn crop. The USDA reduced production in its February report and further cuts could be made if the weather doesn’t improve.

With a crop smaller than potential, experts are concerned about Argentine exports. Lower retentions may encourage sales, but the smaller supply is still a decisive factor.  

●     Ukraine 

The war with Russia has caused a sharp reduction in Ukraine’s corn crop. In addition, weather problems have impacted production in 2024/2025.  

O relatório da Hedgepoint levanta outra questão sobre as exportações ucranianas: é provável que caiam novamente devido à menor produção e à guerra, beneficiando o milho americano.

Read also: 

• United States: influence on the commodities market 

Outlook for the wheat market 

For wheat, the harvest and planting phases start in May in the main global producing countries. The Hedgepoint team collected data on supply and demand in the world today. See below: 

Source: USDA 

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect wheat production and exports. With the loss of the port of Nikolayev, which accounted for half of Ukraine’s export capacity, the country relies on smaller ports. In terms of production and yield in the country, estimates are like last year: 

In Russia, severe frosts are threatening the winter wheat crop, which accounts for 72% of the country’s total production. However, exports continue at a good pace, reaching the highest volumes in 10 years.

Market trends: expert analysis 

At the end of the report, Hedgepoint experts indicated trends for the wheat and corn futures markets. See the main points cited for the CBOT and MATIF Funds: 

• Funds that previously adopted a bearish stance on corn are now betting on a bullish market that translates into a long position.  
• In the SRW (Soft Red Winter) wheat market, current short selling levels are below the lows of the last 5 years. 
• For HRW (Hard Red Winter) wheat, the funds have a short position similar to that of 2024. 

Check out the full outlook on Hedgepoint HUB 

In addition to this data, you can check out the full insights of the 2025 outlook for corn and wheat. All you have to do is register on the Hedgepoint HUB and log in! Take advantage and subscribe to the platform to take courses on hedging, follow full reports, market calls, analysis and more.  

Read also: 

• Water stress in South American crops and their climatic patterns 

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