Soy and oilseeds outlook for 2025

At Hedgepoint Global Markets, the market intelligence team keeps clients up to date on commodity trends. Each year, the experts prepare a complete outlook for crops, offering insights into macroeconomics, supply, demand and more.

In this article, you’ll learn about the main expectations for soybeans and other oilseeds in 2025. Take a look at the points covered in the text and have a good read: 

• Macro overview; 
• Soy in China, the United States, Brazil and Argentina; 
• Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia; 
• Market analysis. 

Read also: 

• Hedgepoint analysis of the global agricultural market post-WASDE report 

Macroeconomic expectations  

The soybean and oilseed market enters 2025 under a scenario of macroeconomic uncertainty. According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund), global inflation is expected to fall from 4.2% to 3.5% this year, with the United States and the European Union closer to their targets than emerging countries such as Brazil, India and China. 

                                                                                                  Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint

Following Trump’s inauguration as president of the United States, the dollar index weakened due to delays in the implementation of tariffs, which eased fears of immediate retaliatory action from other countries. Meanwhile, the Fed (Federal Reserve) maintained interest rates and indicated that a rate hike is unlikely in 2025.

The new US administration has also reintroduced tariffs on products, including agribusiness, such as coffee and ethanol. However, soybeans could enter this mix with the risk of escalation in the trade war between the United States and China. This could reduce Chinese demand for American soybeans and benefit other major producers such as Brazil and Argentina.

In Brazil, the real ended 2024 devalued due to the country’s fiscal situation. This scenario favors Brazilian exports and restricts US demand. With regard to interest rates, COPOM raised the Selic rate and indicated that further adjustments would be made for 2025 – potentially attracting capital.  

Soy in the main players in the global market 

●     China 

China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans. At the top of the ranking, the country has a direct influence on global demand for this oilseed. According to data gathered by Hedgepoint’s market intelligence team, Chinese stocks have only increased in the last 3 years – from 43.3 million tons (Mt) in 23/24 to 46 Mt in 24/25

Due to higher stocks, Chinese soybean imports could fall by 2025. The graphs already show a reduction in the current harvest. Brazil has been the cheapest source of soybeans for China, followed by Argentina and with the United States in third place. 

Source: USDA, Argus, China Customs

●     United States 

Soybean production in the United States remained at 118.8 Mt in February, after a significant cut in January. See below: 

Source: USDA, Hedgepoin

As in China, US soybean stocks are expected to grow. Exports and crushing could rise by 8% and 5% respectively. Soybean meal is expected to increase due to domestic demand and soybean oil exports saw a significant increase in 2024/25. 

Source: USDA, Hedgepoint 

Read also: 

• United States: influence on the commodities market 

●     Brazil 

Hedgepoint’s intelligence team estimates that Brazil’s soybean production should increase to 171.5 million tons (Mt). This figure is indicated by the high productivity of states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais and Bahia. Record production should lead to record exports.  

Source: USDA, Hedgepoint 

Source: USDA, Hedgepoint 

In addition, soybean stocks are also expected to grow in Brazil, but there is concern in the market about domestic consumption of soybean oil due to the biodiesel policy. The data indicates that Brazilian farmers’ sales of the new crop are still below average, but at a better pace.

●     Argentina 

Soybean production in Argentina has been reduced by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) to February 2025. According to Hedgepoint’s analysis, further cuts could be applied if the weather in the country does not improve. In total numbers, production expectations remain higher than in the previous harvest.  

Source: USDA 

In addition, experts indicate that these possible cuts in Argentine soybean production could have an impact on exports and national crushing. With possible lower crushing, exports of soybean meal and oil could fall, favoring by-products from Brazil and the United States. On the positive side, the cut in retentions could encourage greater exports until June. 

Source: USDA 

 Read also: 

• 2024/2025 corn and soybean harvest: Brazil and Argentina in search of records 

Palm oil on the Asian market 

Indonesia and Malaysia are the two main producers of palm oil in the world. As a result, the policies of these countries have a direct impact on prices and supply on a global scale.  

A survey by Hedgepoint points out that possible taxes in India, a major importer of the commodity, are increasing market volatility on Bursa (Malaysia). In addition, palm oil has become less competitive due to lower prices for biodiesel production. Another factor is that Indonesia is carrying out studies to increase its B40 to B50 by 2026, which puts pressure on stock use

Source: Reuters 

Read also: 

• India’s role in the movement of the palm oil market 

Analysis of the oilseeds market 

At the end of the Outlook prepared by Hedgepoint, the professionals indicate the main insights provided by the data. See below: 

• After a period of decline over the last two years, soybean and soybean oil prices have shown signs of support, driven by both medium-term fundamental factors and short-term technical aspects; 
• Soybean meal still faces challenges related to demand, which keeps pressure on prices; 
• Speculators resumed short positions in soybeans and oil after a period of neutrality, reflecting greater uncertainty about future prospects; 
• Despite the recent recovery, the global soybean market remains sensitive to variables such as US trade policy, Chinese demand and weather dynamics in producing regions; 
• The expectation of an increase in global stocks could limit more significant price gains. 

In addition to these points, the team points out that volatility is a characteristic of the commodities market. It is important for players to keep up to date with data such as that provided in this article. Risk management through hedging tools is the ideal way to manage fluctuating oilseed prices.  

To find out more, get in touch with the team Hedgepoint and learn about hedging products for agricultural commodities.  

Watch the soy and oilseeds outlook on Hedgepoint’s YouTube channel: https: 

Read also: 

• The importance of hedge diversification in the commodities market 

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