Market Intelligence Analysis: April’s WASDE

As it has been the trend for the past few months, adjustments in Argentina were the highlight of the April’s WASDE report.

April 12, 2023

Alef Dias

Market Intelligence Analyst

As it has been the trend for the past few months, adjustments in Argentina were the highlight of the April’s WASDE report.  Starting with soybeans, the market may pay more attention to the other bearish fundamentals in the report, despite them being smaller than Argentina’s cuts. That’s because the poor scenario in the country was already known and the 27M ton estimated in production are still above other forecasts. Nonetheless, it’s already the lowest crop figure in the century.

Results for corn were mostly in neutral territory, leaning slightly towards bearish. Both American and Brazilian balances were not changed significantly and stocks in both countries remained the same. While Argentina’s production was cut in line with the market’s expectations, Ukraine exports were raised by 2M mt.  With this adjustment, Ukraine’s ending stocks will return to pre-war levels.

In wheat, world stocks came tighter than expected, with relevant changes in the trade flow. As expected, exports from the Black Sea were revised upwards, with +1M mt for Ukraine and +1.5M mt for Russia. Besides lower stocks in Ukraine, India also contributed to the tighter global scenario, with a 2.1M mt reduction in its ending stocks due to higher domestic demand. Is also worth mentioning that China’s imports were raised by 2M mt, making it the top global wheat importer.

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