Winter agriculture: impacts, risks and strategies for the commodities sector

Winter farming always requires extra attention. In 2025, with the arrival of the coldest season in the Southern Hemisphere and successive cold waves already recorded in Brazil, the impacts on the field and the commodities market become even more relevant for those who follow the sector. 

Negative temperatures, unseasonal rains and severe frosts not only affect production, but also transport logistics and the prices of food and energy resources. In a context of climate instability, each variable gains weight in planning and marketing decisions. 

So, in this article, you'll understand: 

• How cold weather affects plant metabolism and productivity in the field; 
  
  
• Which crops are most affected and which are best adapted to winter;
   
  
• The most effective strategies for mitigating climate risks;
   
  
• The main risks of the season and how market intelligence can help with decision-making.

Happy reading! 

How does winter affect agriculture? 

Low temperatures have a direct impact on the metabolism of plants, as they reduce their vegetative development. During the winter, growth slows down, photosynthesis decreases and nutrient absorption becomes less efficient, which requires specific care on the part of the farmer, especially with more sensitive crops. 

Among the most vulnerable are leafy vegetables such as lettuce and rocket, as well as tropical fruits and coffee, which are traditionally susceptible to frost and losses due to leaf burn.  corn and beans also need more attention, especially in the flowering phase, when the cold can affect the formation of the grains. 

On the other hand, winter also brings benefits. The reduction in pest and disease infestations reduces the need for pesticides and contributes to crop health. 

 In addition, some crops benefit from the lower temperatures. This is the case with wheat, which is widely grown in the South and needs the cold to complete its cycle. Fruits such as grapes and apples, typical of regions such as Serra Gaúcha and the south of Minas Gerais, go dormant during the winter, favoring their future productivity and final quality. 

Also in the South and Southeast, some species adapt well to the season. Oats, barley, rye, garlic, peas and cabbage are common examples of cold-resistant crops and are used both in direct production and as cover crops, such as turnip rape and ryegrass. When grown in a planned way, these species contribute to soil management and the sustainability of agricultural production. 

Strategies for dealing with the challenges of the season 

To minimize losses and maintain productivity, prior planning is essential. Soil analysis, the right choice of cold-resistant seeds and a well-adjusted planting schedule are the first steps to facing the season more efficiently. 

Among the recommended practices, protected cultivation (using greenhouses and tunnels) stands out in commercial gardens and flower production, as it allows control of temperature and humidity, critical factors in winter. Night-time sprinkler irrigation can help stabilize the microclimate: when it freezes, it releases latent heat and protects plants from severe frosts. 

Plastic or plant covers are also used to protect the soil and roots from sudden temperature variations. In regions with a history of intense frosts, techniques such as artificial fogging and forced ventilation have been used successfully, especially on smaller properties with flat topography. 

In addition to solutions in the field, the use of high-precision weather forecasting and constant monitoring of climate data are indispensable. Specialized platforms and reliable sources, such as INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) and CPTEC (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies), help producers anticipate extreme events and adjust management. 

How can the main risks of the season be identified? 

The winter of 2025 has already seen episodes of intense cold in southern Brazil, with frosts in several areas between the end of June and the beginning of July. Temperatures reached -10°C in the Serra Catarinense mountain range, while states such as Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul also faced negative minimums for several consecutive days. 

Frost is one of the biggest risks of the season and can freeze plant tissue, breaking cell walls and leading to the death of leaves, fruit and even the entire plant. Depending on the intensity and type of frost (such as white, black, advection or radiation), the impacts vary, but all require quick action and prior planning. 

Other typical winter risks include water scarcity, especially in areas where rainfall is significantly reduced, and low solar radiation, which affects photosynthesis and the production cycle. In addition, the cold and humidity favor the emergence of fungal diseases in some crops, requiring constant monitoring. 

The 2025 climate scenario has an aggravating factor: the neutrality of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, with no clear presence of El Niño or La Niña until at least October. Although this condition does not bring predictable extreme events, it makes it difficult to anticipate droughts and rains and makes planning even more challenging. 

In this context, market intelligence becomes a key ally. With price volatility and climate instability, producers and buyers need to base their decisions on data, forecasts and simulated scenarios. The use of hedging tools is also gaining prominence, making it possible to mitigate the risks of price fluctuations and protect operating margins. 

Market intelligence: a strategic look at cold weather 

Winter farming poses clear challenges, but also offers opportunities for those who act with planning and resilience. The start of the season in 2025 has already shown intense variations in temperature and humidity in a short space of time. This reinforces the importance of well-structured strategies and decisions based on up-to-date data. 

Hedgepoint's market intelligence helps producers, cooperatives and companies in the sector to make decisions with greater clarity and security. We monitor weather indicators, price variations and global trends to support marketing and protection strategies.  

Do you want to get through the winter with more predictability and competitiveness? Get in touch and find out how we can guide your business with sectoral analysis and a global vision, with tailor-made solutions to reduce risks and identify opportunities assertively. 

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