Corn prices: factors driving the domestic and global market

Understand how exchange rates, climate factors, and global demand shape corn prices.

Corn prices are subject to a range of variables that go beyond on-farm production. As a globally traded commodity, pricing depends on supply and demand, agricultural fundamentals, and financial variables. 

In both the Brazilian and global economies, corn stands out as an essential commodity, with major relevance for domestic supply and the trade balance, requiring producers to take a strategic approach to navigate volatility. 

In this analysis, discover the drivers that shape corn prices and how you can turn information into a competitive advantage. Here’s what will be covered: 

• Corn as a pillar of agricultural commodities;
• Production dynamics and world supply;
• Demand drivers;
• Influence of the exchange rate;
• The direct impact of production costs and weather conditions;
• The importance of hedging to avoid sudden price swings.

 Enjoy the reading!  

Corn as a pillar of agricultural commodities 

Corn is one of the most widely grown and consumed grains globally due to its utility and versatility, whether for human consumption, animal feed, or its role in biofuel production. For this reason, it is one of the most produced crops in the world. 

Brazil ranks as the third-largest corn producer globally, with total production for the 2025/26 season estimated at 138.6 million tons, according to Conab (National Supply Company), depending on the performance of the second crop. 

Regarding Brazilian exports, Conab expects growth this season, supported by a strong production surplus. Exports are estimated to reach 46.5 million tons, while the USDA projects around 43 million tons. 

Guarantee of global demand  

Corn is considered a fungible product because grains from one batch can be replaced with another, as long as quality, type, quantity, and standards are maintained, without losing economic value. 

In the commodities market, corn is highly valued due to its generic nature, being traded based on grain quality and type, facilitating exchange, sale, storage, and ensuring global demand.

Global production and supply dynamics 

The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) projects that in the 2025/26 season, corn will continue to be one of the main global agricultural commodities, with production concentrated in a few countries. 

The ranking shows that the United States, China, Brazil, Argentina, and the European Union account for most of the global production, with the top three representing 73.3% of total output. 

For the 2025/26 season, factors such as domestic consumption, climate, and demand for biofuels are expected to continue influencing the performance of these countries. 

Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop  

Hedgepoint Global Markets projects Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop at 140.3 million tons, representing a slight 0.1% decrease compared to the previous season. 

Even so, the expansion of planted area to 22.061 million hectares—an increase of 2.6% compared to the 2024/25 season—should partially offset the expected drop in productivity. 

The increase in planted area is directly linked to rising domestic consumption, driven by the expansion of corn ethanol production in the country, with new industrial plants expected to come online in the coming years. 

Crop destination  

Brazil is the second-largest corn exporter, shipping about 34 million tons to countries such as Iran, Japan, Egypt, and Spain. Domestically, around 60% of production is used for animal feed, especially poultry. 

Profile of Brazilian producers  

About 50% of national corn production comes from small-scale farmers, with the other half produced by large landowners. Corn is grown in almost all Brazilian states. According to LSPA, the leading producers are:

• Mato Grosso: largest second-crop producer
• Paraná: summer and second crop
• Rio Grande do Sul: third-largest producer, strong in summer crop
• Goiás: expansion of second crop
• Mato Grosso do Sul: consistent growth
• Minas Gerais: strong summer crop and growing second crop 

Demand drivers and by-products  

Most of Brazil’s corn production is used for animal feed, particularly in the poultry and pork sectors. Additionally, growing international demand for biofuels has boosted domestic corn ethanol production capacity. 

Corn versatility  

Beyond feed and ethanol, corn is used as a raw material for oil, sweeteners, tires, electric batteries, pasta, bread, gluten, germ meal, detergents, antibiotics, and paints. 

The influence of the exchange rate

With the U.S. dollar trading at its lowest level since 2024 and the Brazilian real strengthening, corn price formation is directly affected, requiring a more defensive commercial strategy from producers. 

Corn prices are quoted in U.S. dollars on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT - CME Group), the main global benchmark. In the second half of March 2026, B3 corn found support from the stronger dollar but still closed slightly lower. 

Impact on Brazilian revenue  

Since corn is priced in dollars, a stronger real means producers receive less in local currency for the same volume sold abroad. 

On the other hand, a weaker real encourages increased production, as exports become more competitive and producers receive more reais per bushel sold. 

Production costs and macroeconomic variables  

As a dollar-priced commodity with high dependence on imported inputs, Brazilian corn production costs are tied to macroeconomic variables such as international prices, exchange rates, oil prices, and freight costs, as well as key inputs like fertilizers and crop protection products. 

Brazil imports more than 80% of its fertilizers, making producers vulnerable to international price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. Embrapa and Conab indicate that fertilizers can account for up to 40% of total production costs. 

Weather and price volatility  

Weather is another key factor influencing the corn market. Between March and August 2026—a challenging period for U.S. planting and crop development—the transition from La Niña to neutral conditions may increase production volatility. 

Additionally, the possible formation of El Niño in the second half of 2026 could affect South America’s 2026/27 crop, bringing above-average rainfall to southern Brazil and Argentina and below-average rainfall to Brazil’s central-northern regions.

Global instability impacts corn prices  

Geopolitical conflicts, such as those involving Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, directly affect production costs and logistics, creating supply risks, including: 

• Rising energy and oil prices;
• Restricted supply of fertilizers and higher freight costs;
• Traders and investors adding a “risk premium” to corn futures due to fears of supply disruptions. 

Another factor impacting corn prices is uncertainty about U.S. crops, due to reduced planted area and ongoing weather risks. 

Risk management with Hedgepoint

Decision-making requires access to data and analysis to better understand corn price flows and export windows. Lack of a commercialization strategy can be costly for producers. 

Therefore, using hedging tools and derivatives is essential to protect profitability against market volatility and currency fluctuations. 

Want to track in real time all movements, reports, and analyses influencing the corn market? 

Subscribe to Hedgepoint Hub and gain access to powerful tools and market intelligence to prevent negative surprises. 

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