Agricultural costs in focus: what to expect from the 2025/26 harvest?

The cost of agricultural production is an increasingly strategic pillar for financial management in agribusiness. This indicator, which basically consists of the sum of all the amounts "spent" to produce a crop, helps with planning, controlling expenses, investments and marketing, and has a direct influence on agricultural profitability. That's why, every cycle, it's essential to review the cost structure and monitor the factors that can influence profitability, such as agricultural inputs, rural credit and the exchange rate.

Brazilian agribusiness maintains its prominent role in the economy, with the Gross Value of Production (VBP) reaching R$1.31 trillion in the 2024/25 harvest, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock. Even so, the sector lives in an environment of historically high operating costs.

Even in the face of this challenging scenario, recent indicators point to a drop in operating costs for soybeans, corn and cotton in October 2025, bringing a slight relief to margins. Understanding these dynamics is essential for all agents in the production chain, especially when planning crops and managing risk.

In this article, we'll cover:

• The general panorama of costs for the 2025/2026 harvest.
• The recent evolution of operating costs in Brazil.
• The impact of macroeconomic factors and credit lines.
• Strategies to protect the producer's margin.

Happy reading!

What is the overall cost picture for the 2025/26 harvest?

The outlook for the 2025/26 cycle indicates a scenario of narrow margins, where production efficiency will be key to covering total costs, according to projections by the CNA (National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock).

In soybeans, for example, although the average Effective Operating Cost (COE) showed stability between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 harvests, the projected gross margin shrank significantly, estimated at almost 48%, which should squeeze the average gain in production hubs such as Mato Grosso, Paraná and Goiás.

The minimum productivity needed to cover Total Cost tends to exceed the historical average in several regions, raising the operation's break-even point. In areas of Goiás (GO), for example, estimates point to the need for 76 bags per hectare to pay off the total cost, a volume higher than the local average of 66 bags. In Cascavel (PR), the break-even point could reach 80 bags per hectare, compared to an average yield of 55 bags.

Changes in operating costs for soybeans, corn and cotton

Despite the macro scenario of high costs, the October 2025 indicators from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) show a downward trend in the operating costs of the main crops, such as soybeans, corn and cotton.

Variations in regional operating costs

In Mato Grosso (MT), the national benchmark for agricultural production, the cost of producing transgenic soybeans 2025/26 fell from R$4,173.76 per hectare in September to R$4,158.80 in October. This drop was driven by the fall in fertilizer and corrective costs, which fell from R$1,879.33/ha to R$1,779.63/ha, and by the reduction in seeds. In the opposite direction, spending on pesticides rose from R$1,225.64/ha to R$1,334.26/ha in the period.

Second crop corn also showed a consistent drop, from R$3,295.32/ha in September to R$3,280.40 per hectare in October, with a reduction in fertilizers (from R$1,454.25/ha to R$1,395.34/ha) and pesticides.

In the same vein, high-tech cotton fell from R$10,769.75/ha in September to R$10,692.67 per hectare in October, with widespread reductions in fertilizers, pesticides and seeds.

Impact on the Effective Operating Cost (COE)

Although direct costing items fell, the Effective Operating Cost (EOC) did not follow this reduction evenly. The COE for soya, for example, increased in October, as the rise in pesticides outweighed the fall in fertilizers. On the other hand, the COE for corn and cotton fell, indicating that the relief from inputs was more consistent.

This behavior reinforces that, even with the reduction in some variable inputs, other components of the operating cost continue to put pressure on producers' margins.

How do crop costs relate to profitability?

Although there was a recent decompression in direct variable costs in October, the determining metric for assessing long-term economic viability is the Total Cost (TC) of the crop. From this annual perspective, the increase in nominal costs in reais is only partially offset by productivity. The comparison between the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 soybean harvests illustrates this dynamic.

The total cost of soybeans per hectare went from R$5,998.24/ha to R$6,115.83/ha, an increase of 1.9%. In relative terms, however, the cost per bag fell from 51.27 to 50.97 sc/ha, down 0.6%. This movement was mainly favored by the gain in productivity (from 51.7 to 53 sc/ha) and the rise in the projected average price of the bag, which rose from R$117.00 to R$120.00.

The estimated operating margin is around R$244.00 per hectare, corresponding to just 2.0% of gross revenue. This tight margin shows that any fluctuation in the sales price, productivity or the exchange rate can quickly turn profit into a loss.

What are the macroeconomic and credit factors challenging the national agricultural sector?

The agricultural sector continues to be pressured by structural factors, such as the strong dependence on imported inputs, and by stricter financial conditions, especially in the credit lines of the Safra Plan, which intensify the pressure on profitability.

• Dependence on inputs: Brazil relies heavily on imported inputs. Fertilizers, for example, account for approximately 25% to 30% of agricultural operating costs. Volatility in the prices of these products has a direct impact on domestic production costs, making producers vulnerable to exchange rates and geopolitical conflicts.
• Credit Scenario: The 2025/2026 Safra Plan provided a record R$516 billion in credit. However, interest rates for costing lines aimed at producers are as high as 14% per year. This combination of high interest rates and high input costs increases the pressure on farms' cash flow and limits investment capacity.

What strategies can protect producers' margins?

The combination of price volatility and still high production costs makes more structured risk management indispensable in the field. Financial planning, constant monitoring of costs and decisions based on up-to-date data are fundamental pillars for preserving margins and guaranteeing the viability of agricultural activity.

In this context, hedging instruments have emerged as strategic allies. They make it possible to set future prices for commodities or inputs, reducing exposure to fluctuations in the physical market and bringing greater financial predictability.

Hedgepoint Global Markets offers detailed information on the agricultural commodities market, combined with hedging tools that contribute to more efficient risk management in agribusiness.

Contact us at and find out how our solutions can help you plan your next harvest with greater security and predictability.

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