Grain production: Expectations for soybeans, corn and wheat 25/26

Brazilian agribusiness is starting a new cycle with growth prospects. Conab's projections indicate that grain production should reach 354.8 million tons in the 25/26 harvest, an increase of 0.8% on the previous cycle. Among summer crops, the planted area is expected to grow by 3.3%, totaling 84.4 million hectares. 

On the global stage, the grain market continues to see high supply and pressure on prices, especially for corn and wheat. On the foreign exchange front, the dollar tends to remain close to R$5.30, sustained by the interest rate differential between Brazil and the US and by the market's caution in the face of fiscal and political uncertainties. 

At the same time, international competition is intensifying, requiring more attention to marketing and logistical risks. In this context, industry players are closely monitoring factors such as weather conditions, productivity in key countries and the progress of Brazilian domestic demand. 

In this article, you'll find the latest projections for the 25/26 harvest, with the following highlights: 

• Soybeans: production estimates and impacts of global demand;
• Corn: supply, domestic consumption and the challenges of foreign competition;
• Wheat: harvest projections and the influence of the international scenario.
  
  

Have a good read! 

What is the crop projection for Brazilian soybeans on 25/26? 

Hedgepoint's estimate for the new Brazilian soybean crop for 2025/26 points to a new production record of 178 million tons. The volume represents an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous crop, which totaled 171.6 million tons. 

The increase is driven by a 1.2% increase in the planted area, which should reach 48.24 million hectares. The expansion is taking place mainly on degraded pastures, new agricultural areas and the replacement of rice cultivation with soybeans, reflecting the higher profitability of the oilseed. Hedgepoint projects average national productivity of 3,690 kg/ha. 

According to Conab, planting had reached ~60% of the estimated area at the beginning of November, close to the historical average of recent years.  

How will the soybean export scenario affect the market in 2026? 

Brazilian soybean exports are expected to grow significantly in 2026, with Hedgepoint projecting a record 112 million tons, in line with Conab's (National Supply Company) estimate. 

The increase reflects the reduction in exports from the United States and greater global demand for the Brazilian grain, consolidating Brazil as the world's main soybean supplier. 

On the domestic market, demand continues to heat up due to the increase in the biodiesel blend (B15) and the growth in consumption of vegetable protein. Crushing is expected to reach 59.5 million tons in 2026, up 2% on the previous year. 

Even with the strong external performance and domestic consumption of 63 million tons, final stocks are likely to increase, reaching 8.8 million tons, a 66% jump compared to the previous harvest. This movement could generate negative pressure on domestic prices, especially during the harvest period. 

Among the risk factors, the trade negotiations between the United States and China stand out. A possible agreement involving American soybeans could redirect part of global demand, affecting Brazilian shipments and requiring revisions to estimates. With the end of the US government shutdown, sales are once again being reported, which should be closely monitored. 

In the United States, productivity is expected to stand at 53 bu/acre, following an adjustment in the November WASDE (-0.9%). Total production is estimated at 115.7 million tons (down 1.1%) and ending stocks at 7.9 million tons (-3.3%). 

What are the prospects for corn production and domestic demand factors? 

Total corn production in Brazil for the 25/26 harvest, considering the three crops, should reach 138.8 million tons, according to Conab's estimate of 138.6 million tons. The projections indicate an expansion in the cultivated area for both the first and second corn crops. 

Domestic demand remains an important factor supporting prices. Domestic consumption is expected to grow and reach 94.6 million tons, driven mainly by the expansion of corn ethanol production, a new structural source of demand, especially in the Midwest region. This will help to sustain domestic prices and reduce the surplus supply on the local market. 

In the first crop, the planted area is expected to increase by 7.1%, reaching 4.0 million hectares, according to Conab data. The second crop, the main driver of national production, is expected to continue to expand, with growth of 3.8%, totaling 18.1 million hectares. 

What climate and competition factors influence Brazilian corn? 

Climatic factors, especially the La Niña phenomenon, represent a risk for corn production in Brazil and Argentina. While the 24/25 harvest benefited from favorable weather conditions, the expectation for 25/26 is for a more irregular scenario. In the short term, the expected rains in the South could delay the planting of summer corn, impacting the agricultural calendar. 

On the foreign market, international competition tends to increase. The record harvest in the United States and the expansion of the planted area in Argentina will increase global supply and put pressure on prices. Argentina is expected to export around 37 million tons, while in the United States average productivity is estimated at 186 bu/acre, down slightly by 0.4% on the November reading compared to September, and total production at 425.5 million tons, down 0.4% on the previous reading. 

For Brazil, the challenge will be to dispose of production and reach the export target of 43 million tons. According to analyst Luiz Roque, from Hedgepoint, if foreign sales are lower than expected, final stocks (projected at 3.4 million tons) could grow, putting downward pressure on domestic prices. 

What can we expect from wheat production and what impact will it have on the global market? 

Brazilian wheat production for the 25/26 harvest is estimated by Conab at 7.7 million tons, down 2.6% on the previous cycle. The downturn is due to a reduction in the area under cultivation, motivated by lower profitability margins. Even so, average productivity is expected to rise to 3,145 kg/ha, favored by more stable weather conditions in states such as Paraná and Santa Catarina. 

On the global stage, ample supply continues to put pressure on prices. The world's record harvest, the productive recovery in the European Union and the strong competitiveness of Russia and Argentina limit the room for appreciation. Argentina is expected to harvest 22 million tons and export 14 million, reinforcing regional supply.  

In Brazil, imports should reach 6.7 million tons, while exports should total 2 million. The 25/26 national wheat harvest is expected to end with closing stocks of 1.9 million tons, while world stocks are expected to reach 271.4 million tons, an increase of 3.8% on the previous harvest, 24/25 

Market intelligence to guide strategic decisions 

In an increasingly dynamic and competitive global grain market, having access to accurate information and consistent analysis is essential for making safe and strategic decisions. 

Hedgepoint Global Markets offers in-depth analysis and hedging tools to help manage risks and identify opportunities. 

To follow the main trends and get exclusive content on soybeans, corn, wheat and other agricultural commodities, visit the Hedgepoint HUB. 

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