Hedgepoint Brings Together the Global Sugar Market During London Sugar Week

Hedgepoint Global Markets held a proprietary event in London on October 6 during London Sugar Week, a period that features some of the key gatherings on the international sugar market calendar, including the traditional Sugar Dinner.

The event brought together 64 participants—including clients, partners, and industry professionals—in a setting dedicated to analyzing the fundamentals of the global sugar market and exchanging perspectives on the factors influencing supply, price formation, and expectations for upcoming harvests.

The program combined a Market Intelligence presentation by Hedgepoint with a panel discussion moderated by Lívea Coda, the company’s Market Intelligence Coordinator. Participants in the discussion included Murilo Mello, Head of Desk | Sugar at Hedgepoint; Vipul Bhandari, Head of Desk | EMEA at Hedgepoint; Ravi Gupta, member of the executive board at Shree Renuka Sugars Limited; and Sulian Lizé, Head of Sugar Research at Tereos.

“Holding this event during London Sugar Week reinforces our strategy of creating spaces for technical and in-depth discussion about the most significant developments in the international market. Here, we aim to bring together different perspectives to discuss the challenges and transformations of the global sugar supply chain,” says Murilo Mello, Head of Desk at Hedgepoint Global Markets.

A market driven by tight supply in the short term

In her presentation, Livea Coda highlighted how weather conditions have influenced the global sugar balance and helped sustain prices. Agricultural losses in producing regions of the Northern Hemisphere, combined with the impacts of excessive rainfall on processing and th tion of the 2026/27 crop in Brazil’s Center-South region, have reduced short-term availability and intensified the perception of supply constraints.

“This scenario contributed to rising prices, with the October 2026 contract surpassing 18.5 cents per libra-peso during the upward trend. Buying activity by speculative funds also amplified price movements, however, it is worth noting that the real support for prices lies in the March 2027 contract, a period during which the physical tightness is expected to be felt,” notes Lívea Coda, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets.

Despite this support, demand fundamentals do not yet fully confirm the perception of scarcity. Weaker signs of consumption and the slowdown in Chinese imports have contributed to a price correction, indicating that market behavior depends not only on supply conditions but also on confirmed demand and changes in financial positions.

The analysis also highlighted that the balance sheet tightening is largely concentrated in the March 2027 contract, which is trading above 20 cents per pound. “This concentration underscores the importance of monitoring the evolution of fundamentals throughout the cycle and assessing the extent to which current constraints may persist in the coming months,” notes Lívea.

Weather and the Brazilian harvest at the heart of the outlook for 2027/28

The climate outlook was another central focus of the discussions. Conditions associated with a strong El Niño event are putting pressure on various producing regions in the Northern Hemisphere, where reduced moisture has affected the development of crops such as sugar beet and sugarcane.

In Brazil, however, the outlook for the Center-South region points to a different trend. The amount of rainfall observed in the region may favor sugarcane growth and contribute to a recovery in productivity during the 2027/28 harvest, increasing sugar availability in the following cycle.

Projections presented by Hedgepoint indicate an increase in sugar production in the Center-South from 38.5 million metric tons in 2026/27 to 43.8 million metric tons in 2027/28. The scenario anticipates a recovery in both agricultural productivity and the sugar mix in 2027/28, with sugar’s share of production estimated at 50.5%, up from 46.8% in 2026/27.

If this potential is realized, a larger Brazilian crop could help alleviate supply constraints and limit price support later in the cycle. The outlook, however, still depends on the evolution of weather conditions, the development of sugarcane fields, and the production decisions made by mills.

In this context, market analysis requires simultaneously monitoring short-term risks and the factors capable of altering the overall balance in subsequent cycles. Although the current scenario is characterized by tight supply, the outlook for Brazilian production in 2027/28 could represent a significant turning point for the price curve.

Linking market knowledge and global perspectives

In addition to the technical presentation, the panel provided an opportunity to discuss the industry’s key fundamentals from different perspectives, bringing together professionals with experience in market intelligence, trading, research, and sugar production.

The participation of representatives from Hedgepoint, Shree Renuka Sugars, and Tereos broadened the dialogue on the factors influencing the decisions of supply chain participants, at a time when weather conditions, global availability, and expectations for upcoming harvests remain the focus of attention.

For Hedgepoint, hosting its own event during London Sugar Week is an opportunity to strengthen relationships with clients and partners, foster the exchange of knowledge about the factors influencing global commodity markets, and reinforce its commitment to connecting market intelligence, technical expertise, and risk management, helping supply chain participants understand changes in fundamentals and their potential impacts on business decisions.