Macroeconomics 2026: projections for Brazil and the world

The end of 2025 consolidated an environment of high volatility in global markets, driven by intensified trade protectionism, still restrictive interest rates in the main economies and persistent geopolitical tensions. The tariff policies adopted by the United States, coupled with prolonged monetary tightening, forced a reorganization of global supply chains and increased risk aversion in the financial markets. 

For 2026, the macroeconomic scenario projects a more resilient global economy, albeit marked by moderate growth, gradual disinflation and cautiously conducted monetary adjustments. Structural supply waves in the energy sector, changes in trade flows and the advancing technological dispute between major powers should continue to shape the behavior of prices, the exchange rate and investment decisions. 

 In this content, we'll discuss:  

• What impact did the policies of 2025 have on the market in 2026?
• How is the global economy expected to grow in 2026?
• What are the projections for inflation, exchange rates and interest rates in Brazil in 2026?
• How to follow macroeconomic updates?
  

Read on!

How does the macroeconomic context of 2025 impact the current scenario? 

The macroeconomy in 2025 was strongly influenced by Donald Trump's second term in the US, whose protectionist stance significantly increased global volatility. The implementation of aggressive reciprocal tariffs by the United States has altered trade flows, put pressure on emerging currencies and required rapid responses from governments and companies around the world. 

According to a report by Hedgepoint Global Markets, the announcement of these tariffs in April 2025 generated immediate uncertainty about the performance of the US and global economy. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Europe, the direct impacts on agricultural commodities were partially mitigated by the reorganization of international trade flows.

On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve began a cycle of interest rate cuts in 2025, seeking to avoid a technical recession in the face of weakening industrial activity. This move has opened up space for gradual adjustments in other economies, although the interest rate differential has kept the dollar strong against emerging currencies. The DXY index recorded peaks of appreciation, reflecting the search for security on the part of agents in the commodities chain.

In Brazil, the monetary authority maintained a rigid stance to contain inflation, ending the period with the Selic rate at high levels. The combination of restrictive credit and consumption sustained by fiscal stimuli and the resilience of the labor market resulted in a more fragmented economic environment, sensitive to sudden political decisions, a direct legacy for the 2026 scenario.

What are the main prospects for the global macroeconomy in 2026? 

According to analyses by InvesTalk (BB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the global economy should grow between 3.0% and 3.1% in 2026, in a process of gentle and resilient deceleration towards its long-term productive potential. Gradual disinflation will allow for moderate monetary easing, although world trade will continue to feel the effects of US protectionism. 

In the United States, projections from the IMF, the World Bank and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs indicate that economic activity should advance by between 1.7% and 2.0%, driven by stimulative fiscal policies and the delayed effects of interest rate cuts. In the Euro Area, growth tends to accelerate to around 1.4%, sustained by increased defense spending, investments in infrastructure and a gradual improvement in financial conditions. 

On the other hand, China will continue to face a structural slowdown. Projections indicate growth of between 4.0% and 4.5%, limited by reduced fiscal space and persistent challenges in the real estate sector. The dispute for technological and artificial intelligence hegemony between Washington and Beijing remains the main axis of geopolitical uncertainty, accompanied by strict controls on semiconductors, restrictions on strategic investments and the intensification of productive relocation to Mexico, India and Southeast Asian countries, factors that continue to influence global logistics and the prices of basic inputs. 

Geopolitical tensions and energy market dynamics 

Tensions in the Middle East and the conflict in Europe continue to be vectors of uncertainty for the global economy. Even so, analyses by Goldman Sachs and by Hedgepoint Global Markets point to a gradual accommodation of these risks in 2026, reducing geopolitical premiums on energy prices, especially oil. 

The crude oil market is expected to operate with an estimated oversupply of around two million barrels per day, keeping prices under pressure and contributing to the moderation of global energy costs. At the same time, the natural gas market is undergoing structural expansion, with global Liquefied Natural Gas export capacity growing by more than 50% by 2030. A significant part of this expansion is expected to be led by the United States, Qatar and Australia, and its impact will depend on the pace of normalization of European demand over the period. 

This scenario changes the industrial cost structure, favors the disinflationary process and reinforces the importance of hedging strategies for agents exposed to energy volatility. 

What are the macroeconomic projections for Brazil in 2026? 

According to estimates by InvesTalk, Banco do Brasil and Fundação Dom Cabral, the Brazilian economy is expected to grow between 1.7% and 2.2% in 2026. Inflation as measured by the IPCA tends to converge towards 4.0%, while the Central Bank is expected to conduct a gradual cycle of monetary easing, bringing the Selic rate to around 12.0% by the end of the year. Even so, fiscal and exchange rate risks may require a more conservative stance from the monetary authority, limiting the room for more aggressive interest rate cuts. 

The labor market should remain relatively resilient, although the unemployment rate may rise marginally to around 6.4%, reflecting the lagged effects of the prolonged period of high interest rates. Income stimulus measures are helping to sustain consumption and prevent a more intense slowdown in economic activity. 

Fiscal dynamics remain the main point of attention. Despite the primary result targets announced, the rigidity of the budget and the growth in compulsory expenditure make it difficult to adjust public accounts. As a result, the gross public debt is projected at around 84.8% of GDP, keeping agents' confidence conditioned on the credibility of the fiscal framework. 

Exchange rate, credit and electoral volatility 

The exchange rate is expected to remain under pressure throughout 2026, with the dollar projected at around R$5.50 according to the Central Bank's own Focus Bulletin, published weekly. The reduction in the interest rate differential between Brazil and abroad, the current account deficit and the environment of political uncertainty all contribute to this scenario. 

The electoral calendar tends to add volatility between the second and third quarters, impacting the futures yield curve and commodity prices. In addition, although the devaluation of the exchange rate will benefit some exporters, the agricultural and energy markets maintain their own supply and demand dynamics and may be partially detached from the movement of the real. 

In the credit market, the still high cost of credit limits the expansion of portfolios with free resources, while directed credit maintains greater dynamism through government programs. The gradual fall in the Selic rate should gradually favor the resumption of financing. 

How can macroeconomic updates be monitored in 2026?

This year, the macroeconomy projects a scenario of moderate global growth, Brazilian inflation under control and high energy supply, factors that require constant monitoring. The combination of elections in Brazil and international trade tensions keeps volatility high, reinforcing the need for accurate information for the security of operations. 

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