Soybeans and corn enter 2026 under weak dollar, uncertain weather and heated demand, says Hedgepoint

Every year, Hedgepoint Global Markets' Market Intelligence team publishes detailed reports on the global outlook for the main agricultural commodities, analyzing factors such as supply, demand, climate, international trade and price dynamics.

Throughout the blog, you can already follow content dedicated to different markets - and in this 2026 special, we've gathered the main insights for coffee, sugar, grains and cocoa, highlighting trends that should influence these sectors in the coming months.  

The reports were prepared by Hedgepoint experts who follow the evolution of these markets on a daily basis on the global stage. In the grains and oilseeds market, the analysis was produced by Luiz Roque, Hedgepoint's Market Intelligence coordinator, who analyzes how interest rate cuts in the US, currency volatility, climate risk and Brazil's growing strength in global trade should redefine the dynamics of the two main agricultural markets 

Happy reading!   

In the midst of a global scenario marked by a structurally weaker dollar, falling interest rates in the United States, currency volatility in emerging markets and growing climate risks, the soybean and corn markets enter 2026 facing more comfortable balance sheets, but still vulnerable to production and demand shocks. It is in this environment of macroeconomic and climate transition that the trends for the next agricultural cycle are structured, according to the analysis in the report Outlook 2026 - Soybeans and Corn by Hedgepoint Global Markets. 

In this context, the report points out that the dollar should follow a path of weakening throughout 2026, driven by the start of interest rate cuts in the United States after the strong monetary tightening between 2022 and 2024. The Federal Reserve is expected to advance in this cycle from the middle of the year, reducing the rate differential against emerging economies. 

In addition, the US government's high level of indebtedness increases its sensitivity to interest rate movements and has driven part of global capital into assets considered safer, such as gold. In Europe, growth remains resilient at around 1.2%, maintaining the bloc's position as an important consumer of bran. 
 
In China, on the other hand, although the country continues to grow positively, structural challenges such as the real estate sector and excess industrial capacity remain on the radar. 

In Brazil, even with interest rates still high and foreign capital flow favorable to the real, factors such as the high level of public debt and the proximity of the 2026 elections should keep exchange rate volatility high. 

"Despite comfortable balance sheets, climate risk remains a major factor. The transition from La Niña to neutral and the possibility of a new El Niño could quickly reverse the market's sense of security. Brazil continues to increase its global prominence. In soybeans, we are the most competitive origin; in corn, the expansion of ethanol is transforming the internal balance," says Roque. 

Soybean and corn markets: more comfortable global balances

The global soybean balance remains more comfortable than in previous cycles. The sum of supply from the three largest producers - Brazil, the United States and Argentina - has grown above demand, allowing stocks to be rebuilt and reducing the likelihood of severe upward shocks, except in the case of significant climatic events. 

In corn, the scenario is similar, with stocks/use at comfortable levels, although China could increase imports if it decides to rebuild stocks to historically higher levels. 

In terms of competitiveness, Brazilian soy remains the most attractive source on the international market, which explains the focus of Chinese purchases in Brazil. As for corn, Argentina has emerged as the most competitive source, while the US continues to export strongly. Brazil appears less active at the start of the year due to the summer harvest being directed towards the domestic market. 

Climate: transition from La Niña to neutral and risk of El Niño at the end of 2026

The global climate scenario indicates a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions between March and August - a critical period for planting and developing crops in the USA. Transition years tend to present greater production volatility, as occurred in 2012. 

Climate models also point to the possible formation of an El Niño in the second half of the year, which could affect South America's 2026/27 harvest. The typical pattern includes

• above-average rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina;

• below-average rainfall in north-central Brazil. 
  
  

This behavior has already caused significant losses recently, such as in the 2023/24 Brazilian harvest. 

Soybean supply: Brazil is expected to harvest a new record and increase exports

The 2025/26 Brazilian harvest is expected to reach a new record, estimated by Hedgepoint at 179.5 million tons. Despite productivity concerns in Rio Grande do Sul due to periods of low humidity and high temperatures, the positive performance in the other regions should offset losses. 

With high production, Brazil could set a new record for exports, reaching 112 million tons, up from 108.2 million exported in 2024/25. Domestic crushing is also growing, driven by the expansion of biodiesel, although the adoption of B16 still depends on the political scenario. 

In Argentina, production is expected to fall to around 48.5 million tons, due to producers' preference for corn. The country tends to prioritize domestic crushing, reducing grain exports to around 5 million tons. 

In the United States, there are preliminary indications of an increase in the planted area to 85 million acres, which could raise production to around 121 million tons, potentially the second highest in history. 

Corn supply: safrinha performance will be decisive for Brazil; USA and Argentina tend to grow

Brazil's corn production is expected to approach 140 million tons, depending on the performance of the safrinha crop - currently being planted late, which increases the risk of sowing outside the ideal window. Domestic demand is growing consistently, driven mainly by corn ethanol, which has been transforming the domestic balance and reducing availability for export.

Argentina, for its part, is expected to expand its production, supported by more attractive margins than for soybeans. Meanwhile, the US is expected to reduce its planted area to around 94 million acres, but could still produce more than 400 million tons, which would be the second largest harvest in US history.

China: demand for soybeans remains firm; corn may surprise  

China continues to be the main driver of global soybean demand, with ending stocks of between 43 and 44 million tons and a stock-to-use ratio of between 33% and 35%, which is considered comfortable. Imports are expected to reach 112 million tons by 2025/26.

In corn, the fall in Chinese stocks to historically low levels opens up space for a policy of replenishment. If this happens, imports could grow, benefiting exporters such as Brazil, the United States and Argentina.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Global Markets LLC and its affiliates ("HPGM") solely for informational and instructional purposes and is not intended to establish obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, currencies and swaps or investment products. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC ("HPC"), a wholly owned entity of HPGM, is an Introducing Broker and a registered member of the National Futures Association. Trading futures, options, currencies and swaps involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hedgepoint clients should rely on their own independent judgment and that of external advisors before entering into any transaction that is introduced by the company. HPGM and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for any use of the information contained herein that results directly or indirectly in damages of any kind. If you have any questions that are not resolved by our customer service team (client.services@hedgepointglobal.com), please contact our internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com) or 0800-878 8408/ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com (for customers in Brazil only).