US grain harvest: Effects on the global market

The US grain harvest plays a crucial role in the global agricultural commodities market. With each harvest, all players in the chain closely monitor production forecasts, crop conditions, weather, and stocks, as US results cause significant changes in international prices.  

The dynamics of the 2025/26 harvest are no different, and figures released by USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) reports already point to a bearish scenario for US soybeans and corn, with opportunities for other producing countries, such as Brazil. 

In this article, you will understand: 

• The relevance of the US harvest on the world stage;
• The progress of the soybean and corn harvest; 
• The impact of these factors on commodity prices;
• The implications for Brazil as an exporter.

Enjoy your reading! 

Why is the US grain harvest so relevant to the global market? 

The U.S. grain harvest has a major impact on the global market, as the country is one of the largest producers and exporters of soybeans and corn, commodities that are essential for food and feed production. The volume of its production, together with the condition of its crops, directly affects global supply and demand, influencing prices and export logistics for several countries. Therefore, any change in US harvest estimates has the potential to create a domino effect on the global market. 

For the 2025/26 harvest, estimates are that global grain production should reach a record 2.404 billion tons, driven by an increase in corn projections, mainly in the United States.  

According to the Grain Market Report released by the International Grain Council (IGC), the corn projection reaches 1.299 billion tons, a volume 5% higher than the previous record. Projections for the global soybean harvest were also raised to 430 million tons, despite negative adjustments in the US harvest. 

What is the current situation of the soybean and corn harvest in the US? 

The soybean and corn harvest in the US is progressing under pressure from hot and dry weather in the Corn Belt, which promotes the advancement of work but also brings uncertainty about productivity. The USDA confirmed that the corn harvest is 18% complete and the soybean harvest is 19% complete. Although soybeans have met market expectations, corn has fallen slightly below estimates. 

For soybeans, estimates were adjusted slightly downward in terms of productivity, with a 0.2% drop. Despite this, the planted area grew unexpectedly, boosting final production to 117.1 million tons. Final stocks of US soybeans also increased by 3.4%, totaling 8.2 million tons. 

Corn, on the other hand, presented a mixed picture. Yields fell slightly by 1.1%, but final production rose 0.4% to 427.1 million tons. The figure exceeded market expectations. On the other hand, final stocks fell 0.3% to 53.6 million tons. 

What impact will the US harvest have on grain prices? 

In general, the agricultural commodities market is highly sensitive to supply and demand data. The progress of the harvest in the United States increases downward pressure on corn and soybean futures contracts, but uncertainty surrounding official inventory reports has limited more pronounced price movements. 

The USDA's quarterly inventory report revealed corn figures above expectations, which is already putting pressure on cereal prices. Uncertainty surrounding the harvest and inventories creates a volatile scenario for commodity prices. 

Reported corn stocks stood at 38.91 million tons, above the expected average of 33.96 million tons. For soybeans, stocks on September 1 were 8.6 million tons, within the range expected by the market.  

How does the US grain harvest affect Brazil? 

The US harvest has a direct impact on the Brazilian market by redefining the global dynamics of profits and losses, especially in the context of the trade war between the United States and China. The loss of market share in China has led US producers to face record negative margins. In addition, the accumulation of unsold grain has created storage problems, pressuring farmers to switch to more profitable crops, such as corn. 

The reduced availability of US soybeans on the international market has opened space for a strong expansion in demand for Brazilian products. This movement has raised port premiums to record levels, sustaining the profitability of domestic production. In this scenario, Brazil consolidated its position as the main supplier of soybeans to China, which began to source all of its supplies from outside the United States. From January to August, Brazil exported 65.9 million tons of soybeans to the Chinese market, an unprecedented volume that represented 76.2% of all Brazilian soybean exports during the period. 

How to prepare for a constantly changing market? 

To cope with an environment of uncertain prices, it is crucial to closely monitor reports from official entities, such as the USDA, in addition to crop forecasts and key market indicators. The agricultural commodities sector is strongly influenced by climatic variables, geopolitical decisions, and inventory levels, requiring constant attention and rapid response capabilities.

In Brazil, despite the boost provided by strong Chinese demand, many players in the commodity chain still face challenges in dealing with price volatility. The absence of a protection strategy, for example, can result in significant losses in profitability in the face of market fluctuations. 

To navigate this environment more safely, Hedgepoint offers detailed market data and analysis, combined with hedging tools. Explore our exclusive market intelligence content on the Hedgepoint HUB or subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date. 

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