Every 4 years the world turns its attention to the US elections. The race for the presidency is always closely followed, as its results influence the future of the global economy, including agriculture and the commodities market.

The upcoming U.S election and the corresponding policy changes will have a direct impact on both the US domestic and international agricultural sectors. Internationally, the US Presidency has tremendous power to influence trade deals, the strength of the dollar, and the role the U.S played in global food security. Domestically, the impact will be felt on the regularity, production, and domestic renewable energy programs.  

In this context, we invited expert Chris Trant, Head of US Department of Agriculture at Hedgepoint, to understand the potential impact from each candidate for the agricultural market from 2025 onwards, if they are elected. Read on and enjoy!   

Also read: 

• The impact of the US elections on the global economy 

Expectations of each president for agriculture 

To gain more political support from the rural public, both candidates chose vice presidents with strong appeal in producing communities. However, Trump and Harris have different approaches to the future of the agricultural market. Labor, renewable energy, food prices and relations with China are among the key issues in this election 

• What to expect if Trump is elected?  

Hedgepoint’s Chris Trant reports that we can expect an agricultural policy similar to Donald Trump’s last term in the White House (2017-2021). 

Previously, the Trump focused on environmental deregulation, protective trade policies such as tariffs, and aggressive renegotiate of global trade deals. 

“This aggressive policy of Trump eventually led to a trade war with China in 2018. The country was historically the largest single buyer of soybeans from the United States, and the friction led to a drop in US exports and price.  As a result, Brazil replaced the United States as the main exporter of the product to China,” Trant says. 

Trant further points out that the Trump administration created a program to compensate US farmers for the resulting drop in pricing. This was both an economic consideration and political as farmers were seen as a critical part of President Trump’s electoral base. 

Despite trade relations more or less normalizing with China since, Brazil is still the Chian’s largest trading partner for soybean imports. Chris Trant adds: “If Trump is elected and pursues a similar aggressive playbook, there could be a new trade war with China”. However, given the reduced US soybean export share to China, it is possible the Soybean market reaction will be less volatile if history repeats itself.  

During his campaign, Trump raised some other important points about his agricultural policy.

Here are the main points raised by the Republican:   

• Reduce interest rates and lower energy costs for farmers;   

• Reverse costly farm regulations put in place by the Biden administration;   

• Reduce immigration on American farms;   

• Impose higher tariffs on imports.  

Read also: 

• Real Estate Crisis in China: Implications and Strategies to Mitigate the Effects 

What to expect if Harris is elected? 

For Kamala Harris, expert Chris Trant expects a mandate similar to that of Biden, since the candidate is his current vice president. In this case, the focus will be on sustainable investments. 

“Green energy production has grown under the Biden administration, and that trend is likely to continue if Kamala wins,” he adds.  One of the key drivers of that growth has been from the growth of domestic use of soybean oil in renewable fuels. 

he Democratic candidate’s agricultural regulations follow the same path. Harris’ administration is expected to strive for sustainable production, including laws and standards that protect the environment.  

“This should have an impact on the agricultural market, as Kamala supports renewable energy sources such as biodiesel, which is made from soybean oil. If she wins, this support could increase the demand for soybeans for biofuel production,” he concludes. 

According to the expert, Harris’ track record on agricultural issues is sparse. However, the candidate has been focusing more on the issue on the campaign trail in recent weeks.

Check out other policies Kamala says she would work on as president: 

• Addressing higher food prices by prohibiting abusive price increases;  

• Addressing the shortage of immigrant farm labor;  

• Adopting smart and sustainable agricultural practices;  
• Encouraging producers to diversify their export markets, further reducing dependence on China.  

Read also: 

• Crop Calendar: planting and harvesting season for the world’s major commodities 

US elections and market volatility  

A US presidential race as close as this one always affects the commodities market. The high level of uncertainty ends up putting more pressure on prices and some countries start to prepare for possible outcomes.  

In this scenario, hedging is a tool used by companies in the market to protect their business from this volatility. At Hedgepoint, we have experienced professionals ready to serve you. Contact us to learn more!  

In this scenario, hedging is a tool used by companies in the market to protect their business from this volatility. At Hedgepoint, we have experienced professionals ready to serve you. Contact us to learn more! 

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