June’s WASDE fell mostly in a neutral/bearish camp. On soybeans, US carryover, Brazilian production, and world-ending stocks all came above the median expectation, though not by much. Argentina’s production was cut, but also in line with the expected.

Similarly, US corn numbers were also found in the upper half of the market’s range, but not as bearish as in May. US ending stocks also surged, but the big surprises came in the projections for Brazilian 22/23 production and Ukrainian exports.

In both commodities, the market is already starting to trade the weather and low crop conditions and the USDA is expected to only start making changes to US 23/24 production in July. Thus, as long as changes to other countries, or even to the US’ old crop, are not too big, the market may react less strongly to them.

For wheat, the report was extremely bearish, mostly due to higher outputs in the EU and the Black Sea. EU, Russia, and Ukraine combined added 6M mt to the global balance, reflecting the very positive weather conditions seen in the region in the last few weeks. With global demand being increased by “only” 4.4M mt, global ending stocks for 23/24 came above the higher end of expectations and now are projected to be slightly less tight than 22/23 in a stock/use perspective.