Every month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes a report highlighting the global oil market. The Short-Energy Outlook report includes data on global consumption, supply, inventories, and more

In this text, you will find the most important updates on this commodity covered in the report, as well as insights and information on the oil market. Check it out below and enjoy! 

Also read: 

• Oil Market Outlook to 2030 

IEA Oil Highlights 

The IEA’s first oil market report for 2025 cites various data for 2024 and forecasts for that year, starting with global demand for the commodity. According to the company, global oil demand showed a seasonal increase in the 4th quarter of last year, registering a significant annual growth of 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d). This is the highest level since the 4th quarter of 2023 and exceeds the previous forecast by 260 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). Factors contributing to this increase in consumption include: 

• Lower fuel prices; 
• Cooler temperatures in the northern hemisphere;
• Wide availability of petrochemical feedstocks. 

For 2024, annual growth was set at 940 kb/d, with a potential acceleration to 1.05 mb/d in 2025. In terms of global supply, the agency recorded an increase of 20 kb/d compared to the previous month, reaching 103.5 mb/d in December 2024. This figure represents an increase of 390 kb/d compared to the same period last year (2023)

For 2025, the IEA estimates that global oil supply will increase by 1.8 mb/d to reach 104.7 mb/d. Production from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, reaching 53.1 mb/d and 54.6 mb/d, respectively. 

In addition to supply estimates, the International Energy Agency’s report includes data on refined products, global inventories, and prices. See the highlights below: 

• Crude oil refining activity increased by 1.2 mb/d in December to 84.3 mb/d; 
• On an annual basis, refining activities increased by 930 kb/d, with the focus on the United States, the Middle East and Africa; 
• A 660 kb/d increase in refining is expected in 2025, after a 510 kb/d increase in 2024;
• Global oil inventories increased by 12.2 million barrels (mb) in November, reaching 7,655 mb; 
• OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) industry inventories fell by 20.1 mb to 2,749.2 mb, 118.3 mb below the five-year average; 
• Preliminary data indicated that global inventories continued to build in December; 
• Oil prices exceeded $80 per barrel in early January, driven by tighter sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. 

See also: 

• Risk Management in Times of Volatility: Expectations for 2025 

According to a Reuters survey, oil prices fell in late January after Trump called for increased production from OPEC+ countries to lower prices. The 3% drop on Monday (Jan. 27) was also due to losses in Wall Street technology and energy stocks, as well as increased interest in China’s DeepSeek AI. 

The Hedgepoint team points out that oil is fluctuating due to possible sanctions by Trump against producing countries. After talks between the U.S. and Colombian governments, the U.S. backed away from imposing tariffs on Colombia, which could affect the cost of imported oil. 

However, the International Energy Agency also reports new sanctions by the North American country against Russia, aimed at reducing revenues from the Russian oil sector. Donald Trump has already mentioned a 10% tariff on products imported from China on February 1, in addition to possible rates of 25% for Mexico and Canada. 

Read also: 

• 2024 in Review: A Year of Volatility and Challenges in the Commodities Market

In terms of prices, Hedgepoint notes in its updates that Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.14 a barrel at 12:00 GMT on January 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $74.27, down 39 cents, or 0.5%. 

In the HUB it is also possible to analyze the behavior of the OPEC oil price throughout 2024. The graph shows the volatility of last year’s values, in addition to the average of the last 5 years: – which serve as a guideline for 2025: 

See the latest report on petroleum product prices: 

Read also:

• How do conflicts in the Middle East impact oil prices in Asia? 

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