Coffee Harvest: The Impact of Delays and Global Volatility

The global coffee market is experiencing yet another period of high volatility, driven by a combination of technical and fundamental factors that are keeping market participants closely watching supply trends. Although the fluctuations observed on the New York and London exchanges have been intensified by speculative trading, fundamentals continue to play a decisive role in price formation.

In this context, Brazil is once again taking center stage. As the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, any change in the pace of the harvest or in crop processing quickly reverberates through the international market. This year, the rains that fell in June and at the start of the Brazilian winter delayed fieldwork and raised concerns about the short-term availability of coffee, precisely at a time when other major producers are in the off-season.

More than just tracking the progress of the harvest, producers, exporters, processors, and investors need to understand how climatic factors, the physical availability of coffee, global inventories, and financial flows are interconnected and influence price volatility.

In this article, we analyze the key factors driving the market:

• New York and London: the technical dynamics behind the volatility;
• Market fundamentals: why supply remains the focus;
• Winter rains and the delay in the Brazilian harvest;
• ICE inventories and global availability;
• Slow sales and stockpiling by Brazilian producers
• What the market should watch in the coming months
• Market Intelligence: Anticipate upcoming drivers on the Hedgepoint Hub

New York and London: The technical dynamics behind the volatility

The past few weeks have been marked by sharp fluctuations in futures contracts traded on international exchanges. In one of the most significant moves of the year, the September-expiring Arabica coffee contract recorded a price range of more than 50 cents per pound during a single trading session, approaching 360 c/lb before closing the day at 349.95 c/lb.

This performance represented one of the largest daily gains ever recorded for the contract, with a 16.19% increase in just one session. During the same period, Robusta coffee also showed a strong rebound, closing the trading session up 8.83% at US$4,044 per metric ton.

Although some of these gains were given back in subsequent sessions, volatility remained high. While the movement was intensified by technical and macroeconomic factors, fundamentals remain the main driver of prices.

After all, in a market still grappling with low inventories, any additional risk to physical supply tends to trigger significant reactions in the markets.

Market fundamentals: why supply remains the focus of attention

Technical movements help explain the intensity of the fluctuations observed in the markets, but participants’ concerns remain focused on the global coffee supply.

In recent years, the market has experienced successive production shortfalls that have significantly reduced global stocks. Even with expectations that the 2026/27 Brazilian crop will result in a global surplus, stock levels remain relatively low, keeping buyers and investors on the lookout for any factor that could disrupt the supply chain.

This sensitivity is even greater because several producing countries are currently in the off-season, temporarily reducing the availability of coffee on the international market. In this scenario, Brazil assumes a virtually exclusive role as the leading global supplier, making the progress of the Brazilian harvest one of the most closely watched indicators by industry participants.

Winter rains and the delay in the coffee harvest

The Brazilian harvest is now between its peak and the final stretch, but it remains behind the pace seen in recent years. The persistent rains observed during June and at the start of winter significantly hampered the progress of operations, particularly in Arabica coffee-producing regions.

To date, approximately 69% of the Arabica crop has been harvested, while the Robusta harvest has already reached about 97% of the projected area. Despite the progress observed in recent weeks, the cumulative delay continues to affect the pace of harvest processing and the flow of supply to the market.

The Arabica-producingregions bore the brunt of the rains, particularly southern Minas Gerais, where rainfall significantly delayed fieldwork. In contrast, Robusta (Conilon)-producing areas experienced much more limited impacts, allowing the harvest to proceed at a pace close to normal.

In addition to the slowdown in operations, part of the harvest may also suffer quality-related impacts. The lots most exposed to the rains—especially those that remained in the drying process on the drying yards during periods of higher humidity—are at greater risk of a decline in coffee quality.

Falling ICE inventories and concentration at the source

The harvest delay takes on even greater significance because it comes at a time when available supply from other sources remains limited. With several producing countries in the off-season, Brazil is practically the only supplier capable of meeting an immediate increase in international demand.

In this context, any delay in the harvest or processing of the Brazilian crop reduces the perceived physical availability of coffee and provides support for global prices.

This sensitivity is also related to the behavior of global inventories. Although the 2026/27 Brazilian crop is expected to result in a global coffee surplus, the market is still feeling the effects of consecutive years of production deficits, which have significantly reduced available inventories. In other words, the additional supply expected for this season is not yet sufficient to completely eliminate concerns about supply.

Slow sales and stockpiling by Brazilian producers

In addition to the harvest delay, the market is monitoring another important factor affecting coffee availability: the pace of sales of the Brazilian crop.

Even amid periods of price appreciation in the physical market, producers continue to adopt a cautious and selective approach to sales. Expectations of higher prices, combined with uncertainties regarding supply trends in the coming months, have led many coffee growers to hold back part of their production.

The most recent figures for June show that sales remain below the historical average:

• Total sales: approximately 26% of the 2026/27 crop has been sold, compared to the historical average of 36%;
• Arabica: approximately 26% sold, compared to an average of 36%;
• Robusta: about 28%, below the historical average of 37%.

This retention reduces the immediate availability of coffee for export and reinforces the perception of a short-term supply crunch, helping to sustain international prices.

What the market should watch for in the coming months

Although the current landscape continues to be marked by high volatility, it is important to note that the outlook for the 2026/27 Brazilian crop remains positive in terms of production. Brazil is expected to contribute to a global coffee surplus this season.

Global stocks remain relatively low after consecutive years of deficits, and ICE-certified stocks continue to decline, especially for Arabica coffee. This context means that any change in physical supply—whether caused by harvest delays, logistical difficulties, or weather events—has the potential to trigger significant reactions in international markets.

Another factor that will remain on the radar is the evolution of weather conditions for the upcoming harvest. The potential impacts of the El Niñophenomenon on key producing regions continue to be monitored by the market, as they could influence both crop development and expectations for future harvests.

Given this scenario, producers, cooperatives, exporters, processors, and investors should monitor not only the progress of the Brazilian harvest but also indicators such as ICE-certified stocks, official Brazilian export data, the USDA’s new global estimates, and the weather outlook for the coming months.

Market Intelligence: Anticipate the Next Drivers on the Hedgepoint Hub

In an environment that is increasingly sensitive to changes in supply, monitoring market indicators is essential for effective risk management.

To monitor developments in the Brazilian harvest, export data, and the latest global production and consumption estimates, follow the analyses and reports available on the Hedgepoint HUB and be prepared to anticipate movements that could directly impact your costs and trading strategies.