El Niño Reinforces Climate Uncertainty for Global Cocoa Production

El Niño is once again on the radar of global agricultural markets. Although it is a recurring climate phenomenon, its impacts vary depending on its intensity, duration, and the time of year it occurs, making the monitoring of weather conditions an essential tool for producers, exporters, industries, and other participants in commodity supply chains.

The most recent projections indicate the possibility of an active El Niño in the coming months, with the potential to extend into the Southern Hemisphere summer. Climate models currently point to a moderate-intensity event, but one that may gain strength over time, influencing temperature and precipitation patterns in key producing regions around the world.

Given this scenario, understanding how the phenomenon may affect different crops and markets is essential for decision-making. From grains such as soybeans, corn, and wheat to tropical commodities such as coffee, sugar, cocoa, and palm oil, the effects of El Niño can alter production outlooks, global availability, and, consequently, price dynamics. In this article, we analyze the key points of attention for each market and the regions that should remain in focus for market participants over the coming months.

After months of strong volatility, the global cocoa market continues to closely monitor climate developments for the upcoming production cycles. According to an analysis by Hedgepoint Global Markets, the confirmation of a new El Niño episode once again places weather among the main risk factors for the commodity, especially at a time when the partial recovery of production in West Africa supports more favorable expectations for the global balance of the 2025/26 crop.

Although recent price movements have been influenced by technical factors and the international macroeconomic environment, the market remains structurally sensitive to weather conditions. In this context, rainfall and temperature patterns in key producing regions will continue to play a decisive role in production over the coming cycles.

Weather Remains Key for the Next Crop

More favorable weather conditions observed in recent months—particularly in terms of accumulated rainfall—are among the factors supporting a partial recovery in production in West Africa, the world’s leading cocoa-producing region. This scenario reinforces expectations of a surplus for the 2025/26 cycle.

Even so, attention remains focused on the development of the next crop. Adequate rainfall in the coming weeks continues to be important for pods that will be harvested through the end of the 2025/26 mid-crop, as well as for the main flowering period that will give rise to the 2026/27 main crop.

Weather conditions during this period will be decisive in determining both the volume and quality of beans that will reach the market in the next cycle.

El Niño Returns to the Radar of Key Producing Regions

In the medium and long term, the confirmation of El Niño increases concerns among market participants. The phenomenon tends to alter global weather patterns, raising the risk of droughts, excessive rainfall, heatwaves, and changes in storm activity across key agricultural regions.

In the case of cocoa, potential effects vary depending on the intensity of the event and the region analyzed. In general terms, El Niño may favor drier conditions in parts of West and Central Africa, Central America, and northern Brazil. At the same time, it may increase rainfall in countries such as Peru and Ecuador, as well as in some parts of Africa.

Hedgepoint highlights that, in some origins—especially in West Africa—the climatic response to El Niño is not direct and may be influenced by regional phenomena such as the West African Monsoon and Harmattan winds, which are the primary drivers of the region’s climate.

The West African Monsoon typically occurs between May and October, while Harmattan prevails from December to February. El Niño can alter these patterns, delaying the onset of the rainy season and extending the dry season, depending on the intensity and timing of the event.

Temperatures Show a More Consistent Signal

When analyzing recent crops affected by El Niño, Hedgepoint notes that rainfall impacts do not follow a single pattern across major producers.

Results observed in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Ecuador show that precipitation impacts depend not only on the intensity of the phenomenon but also on regional characteristics and rainfall distribution throughout the production cycle.

On the other hand, temperature data show a more consistent pattern. In recent El Niño-affected seasons, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Ecuador recorded above-average temperatures at different stages of the crop cycle, particularly during the main flowering period.

This behavior may increase crop stress, especially when combined with lower water availability.

Production Response May Occur with a Time Lag

Another point highlighted in the analysis is that cocoa production’s response to El Niño does not appear to follow a linear pattern, mainly because cocoa is a perennial crop.

Data suggest that production may respond with a time lag, with losses observed during the crop affected by the phenomenon and potential positive effects in subsequent cycles. This behavior may be linked both to resource reallocation by the plants and to how rainfall is distributed throughout the production cycle.

According to Carolina França, Market Analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets, although this trend has been observed in some seasons, the pattern is not consistent across countries and crop years, reinforcing that production outcomes depend on the interaction between local climate, the phenological calendar, and crop-specific agronomic conditions.

“In general, El Niño is usually associated with lower cocoa production due to higher temperatures and disruptions in rainfall patterns. However, its impacts vary depending on the intensity of the event, the timing within the production cycle, and its interaction with critical phases such as flowering and pod development,” she notes. 

Want to understand how El Niño could impact major global agricultural markets in the coming months?

Download the El Niño white paper from Hedgepoint Global Markets and gain access to a comprehensive analysis of commodities such as soybeans, corn, wheat, palm oil, cocoa, sugar, and coffee.

The study brings together climate assessments, production outlooks, and the key factors that may influence market prices and volatility, helping companies prepare for a scenario of greater uncertainty.