Soybeans 2025/26: What to expect from the new harvest in Brazil?

With the end of the second harvest in several Brazilian regions, the 25/26 soybean harvest has begun. Projections point to a record harvest of up to 178 million tons in Brazil. However, the 71% probability of a La Niña phenomenon is causing concern about weather conditions and the risk of below-average rainfall in the south of the country. 

In this content, you will find: 

• The importance of soybeans for Brazil and the world;
• The current panorama of the 2025/26 harvest, including planted area and production projections;
  
• Expected impacts on the domestic and foreign markets;
• Opportunities and challenges for producers.
  
  

Enjoy your reading! 

How important is soybeans to the global and Brazilian economies? 

Soybeans play a key role in the Brazilian and global economies, as they are one of the most traded agricultural commodities. It supports extensive production chains, from animal feed to the biofuel industry.  

In the global context, Brazil has established itself as one of the largest producers and exporters of soybeans. As such, fluctuations in Brazilian production directly impact prices and supply in the international market. 

What is the current outlook for the 25/26 soybean harvest in Brazil? 

The 2025/26 soybean harvest in Brazil is surrounded by expectations of a new record. Initial projections estimate a production of 178 million tons, which would consolidate a new level for national production. The USDA, in turn, projects a slightly lower but still significant production of 176 million tons. 

The increase in planted area is one of the pillars for these projections. According to Luiz Fernando Roque, coordinator of Grain & Oilseed Market Intelligence at Hedgepoint, the estimate is for an increase to 48.2 million hectares, compared to 47.7 million in the previous cycle, reinforcing the continuous expansion of the crop in the country.  

Similarly, the USDA projects a growth of about 3% in planted area, reaching 49.1 million hectares. Average national productivity is also expected to be high, around 3.58 tons per hectare, surpassing last season's results.  

Producing regions 

Planting for the 25/26 crop has already begun in states such as Paraná and Mato Grosso, although there was a slight initial delay due to a lack of widespread rainfall. However, this delay does not cause great concern regarding the sowing window. As of September 19, 1.2% of Brazil's projected soybean area had already been planted, up from 0.5% in the same period last year and in line with the average of 1.1% for the last five harvests, according to Hedgepoint's assessment.  

According to the Mais Agro portal, regional projections for the 25/26 harvest point to: 

• Midwest: Should maintain its position as the main production hub. The state of Mato Grosso, in particular, plans to plant around 13.08 million hectares, an increase of 1.7% over the previous harvest. 
  
  
• MATOPIBA states (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia): These states tend to continue expanding soybean cultivation, with the opening of new areas and investments in technology. 
  
  
• Southern Brazil: Productivity is expected to recover if weather conditions are favorable, especially after recent crop disappointments in Rio Grande do Sul and parts of Paraná. 
  
  

What are the main risks and uncertainties for the 25/26 harvest? 

Despite positive estimates for Brazilian production, the 2025/26 soybean harvest faces significant challenges, mainly related to climate and production costs. 

Climate

The main climate concern is the possible occurrence of the La Niña phenomenon. Hedgepoint's market intelligence manager, Thais Italiani, pointed out that there is a chance that La Niña will be confirmed in the coming months, which could cause drier weather in southern Brazil and Argentina, directly impacting productivity.  

The latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) points to a 71% probability of La Niña developing between October, November, and December. The phenomenon tends to bring below-average rainfall to the southern region, putting crops in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina at risk. 

In addition, above-average temperatures are expected across most of the country, especially in the South, Southeast, and Midwest. For November, the weather looks more mixed, with rainfall close to normal in states such as Goiás, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Bahia, but below average in Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo. High temperatures are expected to continue, but at less intense levels than in October. 

Costs and profitability  

Profitability is a considerable uncertainty for the 25/26 harvest, with tighter margins per hectare. According to analyses by CNA/CEPEA, despite stability in the Effective Operating Cost (COE), the gross margin may fall dramatically. Producers on their own land may see margins fall by 47.6% (from R$ 2,325/ha to R$ 1,219/ha), while on leased land, margins may become negative at -R$ 229/ha. 

This drop in margins is driven by the projection of a 13.3% lower soybean price in March 2026 compared to the previous cycle. In addition, there was a significant increase of 17.7% in fertilizers, despite reductions in pesticides and seeds. Thus, the total cost of production is still slightly higher (+0.4%), resulting in a more challenging cycle for soybean producers' profitability. 

What are the impacts on the domestic and foreign markets? 

The dynamics of both domestic and foreign markets will be crucial for the 25/26 harvest, influenced by a global scenario of abundant soybean supply and geopolitical tensions. 

The international scenario is marked by abundant global supply. USDA projections indicate a new world production record in 2025/26, with 427.7 million tons, maintaining comfortable global stocks at 126 million tons. This abundance of soybeans tends to put downward pressure on prices, with the future price in Chicago for March 2026 estimated at around US$10.5 per bushel, according to the Mais Agro portal. 

Geopolitically, there are two important factors: 

• US-China Trade War: China, due to new tariffs imposed by the US, has frozen purchases of US soybeans and has begun to prioritize Brazil as a supplier. ANEC data show that Brazil exported 77% of its soybeans to China from January to July 2025, highlighting China's increased dependence on Brazilian soybeans. 
  
  
• US tariffs on Brazil: The United States imposed an extraordinary 50% tariff on Brazilian products starting in August 2025. In response, Brazil is seeking diplomatic solutions and intensifying market diversification, focusing on Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.  
  

Despite external pressure on prices, domestic and foreign demand for Brazilian soybeans remains high. China is expected to increase its purchases to around 112 million tons in 2025/26. Brazil, in turn, plans to export around 112 million tons during the season, consolidating its position as the world's largest exporter. 

Domestically, demand for the soybean complex is also strong. Crushing capacity in the country is growing, with a projection to process 58.1 million tons of soybeans in 2025. This record processing is essential to supply the domestic market for bran and oil, including biodiesel, whose blending mandate is at 12% and is expected to grow in the future. 

Challenges and opportunities for the 2025/26 soybean harvest 

The 25/26 harvest presents a complex scenario for Brazilian soybean producers, which will require intelligence and strategy. Among the opportunities, we can highlight the robust Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans, driven by the US-China trade war, and the diversification of markets that Brazil has been seeking.  

Challenges include pressure on international prices due to abundant global supply, tighter profit margins, climate risks associated with La Niña, and the “tariff” imposed by the US, which forces the search for new destinations for products. 

Given this outlook, producers will need to adopt marketing strategies, such as locking in prices via futures contracts, staggering sales, and constantly monitoring the market. 

To successfully navigate this challenging environment and protect against volatility, Hedgepoint offers detailed market data and analysis, combined with hedging tools for efficient risk management.  

Access the Hedgepoint HUB, subscribe to the newsletter or contact us via our website to explore this market intelligence and stay informed about the 2025/26 soybean harvest. 

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