Volatility is a variable present in the commodities market and plays a fundamental role in the pricing of raw materials such as soybeans, oil and more. In the global scenario, these values are adjusted according to supply availability, demand behavior, climate and others. For 2025, political changes in major economies, especially the United States, add a new element of unpredictability that will directly impact the energy, currency and agricultural markets

With this in mind, we invited the President of Hedgepoint Global Markets, Renato Dias, to discuss the expectations for the commodities market next year. He says that “the concept of volatility in the market will only intensify. Macro trends, such as the economy and population growth, have always impacted the sector and will continue to impose constant fluctuations”. In this context, hedging tools are more relevant than ever. Happy reading! 

US influence on the commodities market 

The presidential election in the United States was already a variable that impacted commodity prices in 2024. Next year, Donald Trump’s victory should reignite the dialog about tariffs and trade sanctions, including with China. Renato Dias points out that this relationship between countries could mean a change in the market.  

“The change of government in the United States is one of the main variables for 2025. After all, the country’s politics have a direct impact on the dollar, foreign trade and major commodities such as soybeans. If China reduces its purchases from the US due to tariffs, Brazil could become an even more important supplier to the Asian country,” says Dias. 

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• Understand the influence of the Federal Reserve (FED) on the Brazilian economy

The role of climate in risk management in 2025 

Renato Dias aponta que o clima é uma das variáveis mais importantes no mercado de commodities, principalmente no setor agrícola. O Presidente da Hedgepoint lembra que o La Niña e o El Niño são os dois maiores eventos climáticos que impactam as produções ao redor do globo. A Organização Meteorológica Mundial (WMO) divulgou que há 55% de chance de La Niña se desenvolver entre dezembro de 2024 e fevereiro de 2025.

“The main climate monitoring bodies indicate that La Niña is likely to extend into the first quarter. This could have a good impact on some commodities, such as soybeans in Brazil and sugar in India. However, it has also delayed the coffee harvest in Vietnam,” adds Renato

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• The importance of the sowing window for Brazilian soybeans 

Technology and artificial intelligence 

The President of Hedgepoint also discusses the evolution of artificial intelligence in the commodities market and in hedging. Although technology is a great partner in the efficiency of these sectors, there are still opportunities to be explored in the use of analysis and estimates.

“The market has a long way to go before artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to commodities trading. While speculators already use AI for technical and fundamental analysis, the hedging community needs to keep up with this innovation in order to process data and make decisions even more efficiently,” Dias points out.  

According to the professional, the big trading companies are the main candidates to lead this technological revolution in the commodities market. These companies have huge resources and invest heavily in innovation.

Investment in this technological sector continues to evolve and this means that producers and consumers will make increasingly assertive decisions. “The use of AI is now essential for monitoring climate data, supply and demand balances and market movements in real time,” adds Renato.

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• Technology: trends and relevance in the commodities market 

Hedgepoint’s role in price risk management 

Faced with this volatile scenario in the commodities market, hedging has emerged as an essential tool for those exposed to price fluctuations. Both Trump’s election and La Niña are practical examples of variables that alter the value of raw materials in international trade. Hedgepoint’s customized risk management products are therefore the answer to financial protection.

On Hedgepoint HUB, the clients can access extracts, reports and updates on weather and commodity behavior, as well as courses in the field.  

“Our agile market analysis model and investment in technology make all the difference when it comes to making quick, informed decisions,” Dias concludes. 

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• Basis applied to hedging: understand strategies and risks  

Contact Hedgepoint and start 2025 turning risks into opportunities 

Count on Hedgepoint’s excellence and help your company against the volatility of the commodities market. Contact us now and guarantee close attention, access to complete reports, customized hedging products and much more.  

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• Market updates: how Hedgepoint reports work 

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This document has been prepared by Hedgepoint Global Markets LLC and its affiliates (“HPGM”) solely for informational and instructional purposes and is not intended to establish obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, currencies and swaps or investment products. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC (“HPC”), a wholly owned entity of HPGM, is an Introducing Broker and a registered member of the National Futures Association. Trading futures, options, currencies and swaps involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hedgepoint clients should rely on their own independent judgment and that of external advisors before entering into any transaction that is introduced by the company. HPGM and its associates expressly disclaim any liability for any use of the information contained herein that results directly or indirectly in damages of any kind. In the event of questions not resolved by our customer service team ([email protected]), please contact our internal ombudsman channel ([email protected] ) or 0800-878 8408/[email protected] (for customers in Brazil only).