Wheat crops: what are the challenges in southern Brazil?

Wheat crops in southern Brazil are facing a period of significant challenges. Heavy rains and the return of cold weather have caused damage and impacted the development and sowing of the crop. Producers and investors are watching the weather closely and trying to understand the outlook for this important cereal.  

With this in mind, we have created our exclusive article to explain: 

• The impact of rain and frost on wheat crops;
• How excessive humidity damages development;
• Management challenges following excessive rainfall;
• The outlook for growing wheat in southern Brazil;
• How to strengthen resilience in the face of climate volatility;
• Where to find market intelligence for the sector.
  
  Happy reading!
  

What is the impact of rain and frost on wheat crops in the South? 

Heavy rains and cold weather have caused losses to wheat crops in southern Brazil, affecting work in the field and the development of the plants. Cepea surveys indicate that, although cold weather usually favors wheat, the high volume of rain resulted in significant damage and caused a warning scenario for the crop1. 

Excessive rainfall, especially in June, damaged the start of the wheat cycle in Rio Grande do Sul. In Santa Catarina, the pattern was similar, with damage to planting. In Paraná, the impacts were more localized. 

Read also: 

• Floods in RS: impact on agriculture

How does excessive humidity affect the development of wheat crops? 

Excessive humidity harms the development of wheat crops by soaking the soil, preventing machinery from entering and causing water stress to the plants. In June 2025, Embrapa Wheat's weather station in Passo Fundo recorded 425 mm of rainfall, almost three times the historical average of 158 mm for the month, which led to a delay in sowing. 

This accumulation of water in the soil prevents proper oxygenation of the roots, leading to compaction and, in many cases, the need for replanting. The plants in vegetative development suffered stress due to the high humidity and low light levels, which limited their growth.  

In addition, the unfavorable weather conditions made it impossible to carry out essential cultural treatments, such as the application of herbicides, fungicides and top dressing. This scenario compromises plant health and productivity. 

What are the management challenges for wheat crops after the excessive rainfall? 

The management challenges for growing wheat after excessive rainfall include an increased risk of fungal diseases, water erosion and the need to adjust nitrogen fertilization. Soil waterlogging increases the incidence of common wheat mosaic (a virus transmitted by a microscopic mite), a disease capable of reducing grain yields by up to 50%. 

Water erosion, caused by rainwater runoff that doesn't infiltrate, is another serious problem. Contour sowing and the construction of agricultural terraces are Embrapa's recommendations to create barriers, reduce the speed of the downpour and ensure water infiltration, preserving the soil, seeds and nutrients.  

Read also: 

• Maize and wheat: prospects and challenges for 2025
  
  

What are the prospects for wheat crops in southern Brazil? 

The outlook is mixed, with indications of partial recovery, but challenging weather conditions are also forecast. After the sharp drop in June, the NDVI of wheat crops showed a recovery in July, which indicates an ability to resume growth after the initial water stress. 

However, the winter of 2025 will be marked by periods of consecutive rain, interspersed with dry days and cold waves, which could extend into spring.  

INMET's Climatological Bulletin projects above-average rainfall for Rio Grande do Sul, while Paraná and Santa Catarina are expected to have rainfall close to or below the historical average. This scenario requires constant monitoring and adaptation on the part of producers. 

Read also: 

• 24/25 wheat harvest in Brazil and Argentina 

How can the resilience of wheat crops be strengthened in the face of climate volatility? 

Adopting innovative agricultural practices and searching for market information are the ways forward. Implementing technologies to monitor the climate and soil allows for faster and more efficient responses to extreme weather events. 

In addition to agronomic management, understanding global market dynamics is crucial. The volatility of agricultural commodity prices, influenced by climatic and geopolitical factors, requires producers and investors to consider the use of hedging instruments. These tools help to manage financial risk and ensure business stability. 

Hedegepoint HUB: where to find market intelligence? 

To find market intelligence for wheat crops, access the analysis and data offered by professionals working in the commodities sector. An in-depth understanding of trends and risks allows for more informed and strategic decisions, especially against a backdrop of high climate volatility. 

To this end, Hedgepoint Global Markets offers detailed market analysis and hedging tools for the agricultural sector. Our goal is to help producers and investors navigate uncertainties more safely.  

Subscribe to Hedgepoint HUB, our platform with exclusive reports and courses on the financial market. Explore how market intelligence can help you plan and protect your wheat investments. 

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