Argentina was the highlight of March’s edition of the WASDE, however there were other very relevant points of attention.
Just as in February, adjustments in Argentina were the highlight of the report, as the intensity of production cuts on both soybeans and corn surprised the market, while other changes came more or less within expectations.
Starting with soybeans, Argentina set the bullish tone, with a jaw-dropping 8M mt cut to production (those who already had the local agencies’ figures on sight were not so surprised though), with the US balance receiving changes that left the country’s ending stocks closer to the bottom of the expected range.
On corn, changes to Argentina’s balance were just as aggressive, with a 7M mt cut to production (below the lowest market estimates) followed by a 5M mt tons trim to exports. However, the situation in Argentina was already known, which diminishes market’s response. On top of that, Ukraine’s exports were increased -which came as a surprise given the already challenging nature of the previous numbers – as well as US ending stocks, that reached the top of the market estimates. As a result, world ending stocks were also found at the top of market’s range, making for a slightly bearish report for corn overall.
Wheat had an overall mild report, with Ukraine, Russia and the US retaining February’s figures. The USDA did increase Australia’s output by 1M mt, following a previous update by local agency ABARES, allowing for a 0.5M mt raise in exports.
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