Market Intelligence Analysis: May’s WASDE

May’s WASDE brought the first USDA estimates for 23/24 crops and despite some bullish points in wheat, the overall message of the report was bearish. Check below the main highlights from this month’s report:

May 12, 2023

Alef Dias

Market Intelligence Analyst

May’s WASDE was almost all bearish for soybeans. For starters, although US ending stocks – for both old and new crops – were found in the upper half of the estimates. In South America, kept Argentina’s 22/23 production – while market expected a cut – and Brazil’s output was increased by a more than anticipated.

Similarly, US corn numbers (production and stocks) were also found in the upper half of market’s range. No less bearish numbers came from South America. Argentina’s production was maintained, while market also expected cuts. Brazil’s 22/23 crop was bumped to 130M ton and, although this was within market’s range, it represents a 5M ton increase.

On the other hand, it was a bullish report for wheat. Poor conditions in Kansas and other top producing states lead to lower production figures, despite a record planted area. World ending stocks are seen above medium expectations but are set to be the tightest since 2014/15, contributing to the bullish outlook. Australia, Russia, and Ukraine were the main responsible for this scenario, with sizeable reductions in their crops estimates for 23/24.

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